12 pressing questions that will define the MLB trade deadline

Welcome to the July pennant race.

The two and a half weeks leading to the Aug. 3 trade deadline will be an all-out sprint. All but seven of the 30 clubs are within four games of a playoff position. Many still haven’t decided whether to buy or sell, whether they are good or actually stink.

The final days of July should provide greater definition. Or, considering how muddled things are, particularly in the B-list American League, maybe confusion will continue to reign.

What follows are my biggest questions for the deadline. It is not a comprehensive look, dissecting every club. My goal is to hit the major issues, knowing over the next few weeks entirely new ones might emerge.

Will the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal?

On May 31, the Detroit Tigers were 22-38, the worst record in the majors. Since then they’re 22-14, tied for best record in the American League.

Sure, they’re still eight games under .500. But in an AL with only five teams over .500, the Tigers are a budding juggernaut. As play resumes, they are 3 1/2 games back in the wild-card race, 6 1/2 games back in the AL Central and last in your blockbuster-loving hearts.

It will be difficult for the Tigers to justify trading Skubal if they continue to climb, or remain even moderately in contention. They surely will listen on their back-to-back Cy Young winner in the odd chance some club wants to overwhelm them, perhaps with a quality controllable starter plus prospects for a short- and long-term benefit. But good luck finding such a team, particularly when the price for Skubal also would include nearly $10 million in remaining salary.

I was almost certain a trade would happen when the Tigers were at their lowest, but circumstances have changed. They might change again, considering that the three teams ahead of the Tigers all could get stronger in the days ahead. The Cleveland Guardians are on the verge of getting back switch-hitters José Ramírez and Angel Martínez. The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins might buy to a greater extent than they sell.

The risk for the Tigers is that if their World Series quest sputters, Skubal will depart for only a draft pick. But the downside of trading him while in contention, for both their public relations and internal dynamics, might cause the franchise even greater damage.

Where have you gone, Aaron Judge?

The New York Yankees also are monitoring the recoveries of other injured players, including designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton and left-handers Max Fried and Carlos Rodón. But Judge is the team’s sun, moon and biggest star.

Before Judge suffered a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side, the Yankees were 35-23, averaging 5.14 runs per game. Without him, they’re 18-19, averaging 4.24 runs — nearly one per game fewer.

Judge, 34, was slated to undergo new imaging this week, and the Yankees are expected to provide an update Friday. If the news is good and Judge appears capable of returning in August, the Yankees can aggressively pursue their biggest needs — a right-handed hitting catcher, bullpen help, perhaps a starting pitcher. But if Judge will be out for a longer period — or worse, the rest of the season — club officials might be more circumspect.

Yes, it’s a down year for the AL, and perhaps the Yankees could reach the World Series even without Judge. The last six weeks, however, have demonstrated how difficult that task would be.

How will John Mozeliak reshape the Angels?

Mozeliak, the Los Angeles Angels’ newly hired Baseball Operations Consultant serving as interim GM, might be the biggest wild-card executive at the deadline in recent memory.

Think about it: Mozeliak almost certainly feels no allegiance to players he inherited from Perry Minasian. He also is under no particular pressure to please owner Arte Moreno, considering his contract runs only through December.

Moreno’s previous heads of baseball operations all believed they would gain sufficient autonomy. None did, and perhaps Mozeliak will be no different. He already has said the team does not need to rebuild, espousing one of Moreno’s long-held positions. But he also oversaw the recent selection of a high-school player with the Angels’ top pick in the amateur draft, a first for the team since 2018.

The Angels can play a major role at the deadline if they make available two of their best starting pitchers, right-hander José Soriano and lefty Reid Detmers. It’s probably so much wishful thinking. The hiring of Mozeliak might amount to a new beginning. More likely, it will not.

Would the Mets trade Francisco Lindor?

Owner Steve Cohen told the New York Post the answer is no, saying of Lindor and frenemy Juan Soto, “I don’t see them going anywhere.” That certainly is true of Soto, who seemingly is headed for his fifth top five MVP finish. But speculation about Lindor will persist until he and Soto prove they can co-exist and the New York Mets snap out of a funk that now dates back more than a year.

Lindor, who enjoys full no-trade protection, recently declined to discuss whether he would be open to a deal. Moving position players with big contracts generally is easier in the offseason, when teams are more flexible with their rosters.

The Mets will be busy fielding interest on multiple other players, notably their pitchers on expiring contracts — lefty relievers A.J. Minter and Brooks Raley, righty starter Freddy Peralta and, if he is not signed to an extension, righty starter Clay Holmes.

Perhaps the more relevant question for the Mets is whether they would move two controllable righty relievers: Luke Weaver, who is signed for next season at $11 million, and Huascar Brazoban, who is under club control for three additional seasons.

They’re not exactly in a position to say no.

Will either the Rays or Brewers pull a surprise?

The Tampa Bay Rays are the better bet. Going back to when Andrew Friedman ran their front office, they often have been in the mix for big names at the deadline — none bigger than Shohei Ohtani, whom they seriously pursued in 2023.

Granted, the Rays rarely succeed in their quests. One of their bigger scores, designated hitter Nelson Cruz in 2021, was largely ineffective and cost them right-hander Joe Ryan. But while the Rays own the best record in the AL, they still could address multiple needs — catcher, second base, the rotation, the bullpen.

Perhaps more than anything, the Rays would benefit from a hitter to complement their Big Three of designated hitter Yandy Díaz, third baseman Junior Caminero and first baseman Jonathan Aranda. The right outfielder also could fit.

The Milwaukee Brewers, sitting on the second-best record in the NL, actually are in something of a perilous state. Their rotation, so dynamic in the early part of the season, is a growing concern.

Brandon Woodruff is down until at least September. Kyle Harrison is out with left forearm tightness. And Jacob Misiorowski was scratched from his final start before the break because of arm fatigue.

Rarely do the Brewers make splashy additions. Their trade Wednesday for Lance McCullers Jr., who has a 6.65 ERA in 94 2/3 innings the past two seasons, and lefty Colton Gordon, who could be the next unknown pitcher the Brewers turn into an asset, was more their kind of move.

The physical concerns in their rotation might once again make them hesitant to trade future value for present.

How diligently will the Braves and Cubs address their rotations?

Atlanta Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos was open about his desire last offseason to add a playoff-caliber starter, but still hasn’t done it. Anthopoulos, according to people briefed on his discussions, currently is more focused on his offense while weighing multiple internal options for his rotation.

The Braves will evaluate Reynaldo López, Bryce Elder and Owen Murphy in the next two and a half weeks. They also are monitoring the recoveries of Martín Pérez, AJ Smith-Shawver and Spencer Schwellenbach.

Offensively, they will activate right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. and catcher Sean Murphy once they regain their timing on their respective rehab assignments. But club officials have been frustrated with the team’s inconsistent run production in recent weeks. Third baseman Austin Riley remains a primary culprit. His .618 OPS is the 10th lowest in the league.

The Braves, at least, rank fifth in the majors in ERA. The Chicago Cubs are 21st, and remain in dire need of pitching help in all forms. Some might come from the injured list (righty starters Jameson Taillon and Edward Cabrera, closer Daniel Palencia, righty reliever Phil Maton). Some almost certainly will need to come from trades, and lefty David Peterson was a start.

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer perhaps tipped his hand last month on how aggressively he might act at the deadline, saying a first-round bye was critical to a team’s odds of winning the World Series. The Cubs are five games back for the second NL bye, currently held by their division rival, the Brewers. They need to narrow that gap in the next 2 1/2 weeks.

Would the Nationals, Cardinals and White Sox prefer to lose?

The answer obviously is no, but all three of those clubs began the season likely anticipating they would sell. Funny how real life, in the form of winning actual baseball games, can disrupt a team’s best-laid plans.

The Washington Nationals, one game under .500 with a bullpen as bad as their offense is good, still should end up sellers. But as The Athletic’s Spencer Nusbaum writes, trading shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander Foster Griffin and others would be a step back for a team trying to move forward, and perhaps not the message the front office wants to send its players and fans.

The St. Louis Cardinals stumbled before the break, losing four of five at home to the Brewers, but are still only one game back in the NL wild-card race. Even if they reach the postseason, they probably aren’t strong enough to win a series. But as with the Nationals, playing meaningful games in September would carry its own value.

The White Sox, playing in a mediocre division and league, figure to be the most serious buyers in this group. In need of both starting and relief help, they are willing to be relatively aggressive on players under club control, but are not inclined to overpay for rentals, according to a person briefed on their plans.

What can we expect from the last swashbucklers — the Padres’ A.J. Preller, Phillies’ Dave Dombrowski and Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto?

Athletics executive Billy Beane compares modern baseball executives to actuaries, forever concerned with mitigating risk. Preller, Dombrowski and Dipoto are the exceptions — with Preller, in particular, forever a threat to make deals that will make fans’ heads spin.

The problem for Preller is that his team — .500 and 3 1/2 games back in the NL wild-card race — isn’t very good. The San Diego Padres rank last in the majors in runs per game. Their rotation is 27th in ERA. And while right-handers Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove both are tracking toward August returns from elbow injuries, who knows how much help they actually will provide?

The best course for Preller probably is to sell, particularly if he can extract a monster return for closer Mason Miller. Third baseman Manny Machado is 34 with a .708 OPS. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts is 33 with a .648. The Padres’ window already might be starting to close.

Dombrowski’s Philadelphia Phillies face similar age-related questions. Their offense, ranking 18th in runs per game, is not as potent as the big names in their lineup would suggest.

Dipoto, possessing six quality starting pitchers and another, left-hander Kade Anderson, who has a 1.36 ERA in 14 starts at Double A, is in the most enviable position of the swashbucklers. Seeking to add a right-handed bat and leverage reliever, he is well-positioned to fill both needs.

Such moves might be necessary for the Seattle Mariners to erase their 1 1/2-game deficit in the AL West. The first-place Texas Rangers might finally be getting healthy, and the Houston Astros plan to push as they always do, adding rotation and/or outfield help.

What will become of the Red Sox and Orioles?

In the race of the turtles, otherwise known as the battle for the final AL wild-card spot, even teams that spent most of the season exasperating their fans stand a chance.

The Boston Red Sox replaced manager Alex Cora with Chad Tracy on April 25 and toward the end of June still looked uninspired. The Baltimore Orioles managed their first four-game winning streak on the last day before the break, but couldn’t even enjoy that modest achievement when surging third baseman Blaze Alexander suffered a broken left hand.

Yet, both these clubs still might buy.

The Red Sox, riding a nine-game road winning streak, are only a half-game back in the wild-card standings. The Orioles are only two games out. Neither team is above .500, mind you, but only five AL clubs have more wins than losses. The rest take their encouragement where they can find it.

Both the Red Sox and Orioles have big series coming out of the break. The Red Sox begin a 10-game homestand against AL East teams with four games in three days against the Rays. The Orioles play three games in Houston, then three in Boston against their fellow wannabe contenders.

Neither the Red Sox’s Craig Breslow nor the Orioles’ Mike Elias will want to sell when such a concession would be an admission of failure, potentially jeopardizing their jobs. But executives under scrutiny always say they will put the interests of the organization above their own. We’ll see how that works out.

Will the Blue Jays finally awaken?

The entire industry expects it, but the defending AL champions entered the break six games under .500 and last in the AL East. Not to worry: They were only 2 1/2 games back in the wild-card race despite owning the fifth-worst record in the league.

The ineptitude of the Jays’ offense is stunning to anyone who watched them rampage through the 2025 postseason. Their run production is the fourth-worst in the majors. First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still hasn’t hit a home run at Rogers Centre, his home park.

The Jays want to buy, but will prepare to go either way, according to a person briefed on their thinking. It won’t necessarily be easy for them to ignite. Coming out of the break, they will play back-to-back series at home against two first-place teams, the White Sox and Rays.

Will the Pirates be … aggressive?

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ trade of the 34th pick and minor-league left-hander Jaden Woods for infielder Jacob Gonzalez and left-handed reliever Brandon Eisert was a clear signal the Buccos are going for it. And why not?

The Pirates boast the hardest-throwing pitching staff in the majors. And the most shocking statistic of the season might be that Pittsburgh is tied with the Washington Nationals for the major-league lead in runs per game.

Shortstop Konnor Griffin is out until September, but the expected returns this month of first baseman Spencer Horwitz, center fielder Oneil Cruz and catcher Endy Rodriguez could translate to even better offensive production.

The emergence of outfielder Esmerlyn Valdez, who has 10 home runs and a 1.084 OPS in 105 plate appearances, will create a potential offensive logjam as the team gets healthier, a problem the Pirates last had when, during the “We Are Family” days?

Perhaps general manager Ben Cherington will act creatively and trade one of his major-league hitters for the bullpen help the Pirates have badly needed since trading then-closer David Bednar to the Yankees at last year’s deadline.

Whatever happens, the clock is ticking on Pittsburgh’s time with reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, who is under club control for only three additional seasons. And with a labor battle in progress, all eyes will be on Pirates owner Bob Nutting, who increased his payroll by almost $20 million this season, but doesn’t seem the type to disrupt the league’s small-market pity party.

Can the Giants move any of their big contracts?

The San Francisco Giants created the first stir of trading season in mid-June, putting out feelers on some of their players. They’re willing to trade any veteran except staff ace Logan Webb, but the possibility of them moving any of their three highest-paid players — first baseman Rafael Devers, shortstop Willy Adames and third baseman Matt Chapman — still appears remote.

Devers, currently owed more than $220 million through 2033, is back to being Devers, batting .270 with 17 homers and a .926 OPS since May 1. He’s not yet 30, still can be part of a Giants renaissance and his contract is a deterrent to any trade.

Adames, earning $28 million per season through 2031, is both a below-average hitter and defender at short, crushing his value. Chapman, earning $25 million per season through ’30, is the most affordable of the three, and at least has his defense to recommend him. But like Adames, he possesses full no-trade protection, depriving the Giants of control.

Two potential free agents, All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez and left-hander Robbie Ray, remain the Giants most likely to be moved. Trading an outfielder such as Jung Hoo Lee or Heliot Ramos could inject additional young talent into an improved farm system. It would behoove the Giants to be creative. And bold.

What kind of dunk will the Dodgers perform?

During transaction periods, the phrase “hanging around the backboard” has become the Dodgers’ modus operandi. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman lays low in the paint, then skies like Michael Jordan, does a 360 and jams on the rest of the league.

Consider last offseason: Edwin Díaz, dunk. Kyle Tucker, dunk. Consider past deadlines: Yu Darvish in 2017, Manny Machado in 2018, Max Scherzer and Trea Turner in 2021. Jack Flaherty, Tommy Edman, Michael Kopech and Amed Rosario in 2024. All dunks in one form or another.

Friedman, though, hates overpaying at the deadline. He was relatively quiet last year, sending righty Dustin May to the Red Sox while acquiring righty reliever Brock Stewart from the Twins plus outfielder Alex Call from the Nationals and making a minor four-player trade with the Rays. And the Dodgers are again signaling they would prefer to make only incremental depth moves.

Well, if ever there was a team to play on Skubal, it’s the back-to-back World Series champions, attempting a three-peat. The Dodgers are teeming with prospects. The next labor agreement is almost certain to include greater payroll restrictions. Why not go for one last splurge?

If Friedman is spotting lacing up his Jordans, look out.