What was up with Sam Darnold’s dud? Is the Bears’ record a mirage? Our experts’ Week 11 takeaways

Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.

Comebacks were on the NFL’s menu in Week 11. Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears needed a fourth-quarter rally yet again, walking off the Minnesota Vikings with a game-winning field goal. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills went back and forth with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before pulling away by scoring the game’s last 13 points. The Denver Broncos, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers all won from behind as well.

NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on a Week 11 in which the early games were merely appetizers for some heavyweight showdowns later in the day.

Should Sam Darnold’s four-interception game in a 21-19 loss to the Los Angeles Rams give us pause about the Seattle Seahawks? Is he starting to have a big-game problem?

Jones: It certainly feels like it. This is three high-stakes games now — last year’s NFC North-deciding season finale against Detroit, last year’s wild-card game against the Rams and then this week with first place in the NFC West on the line — in which we saw Darnold really struggle under pressure. All three times, he faced aggressive defensive attacks and couldn’t deliver, instead making costly mistakes. It was a shift from what we had previously seen (both in 2024 and this season), when he largely excelled against extra pass rushers. But is it really a big-game thing, or is it that he was facing elite defensive attacks in those big games? Probably a combination of both. Part of what makes those games “big” was the level of talent he was facing. So, he has work to do in figuring out how to maintain poise and stop forcing things and getting himself into trouble as a result.

Nguyen: It is a concern because it’s yet another big game in which we’ve seen Darnold fold. He hasn’t just played badly in these high-leverage games; he’s been terrible. Some of the interceptions he threw against the Rams were just so unnecessary. I think he’ll show up in one of these games. He’s getting to experience the pressure and hopefully he can learn to deal with it better. But as of now, he has to prove he can perform in these games and get the monkey off of his back. The Rams also did a good job of defending the Seahawks with sub personnel. They didn’t get gashed on the ground and they stopped Seattle’s explosive pass plays. It could be a strategy that we see more defenses deploy against the Seahawks. It was still a great game that lived up to the hype, and Darnold gave the Seahawks a chance to win in the end, with a 61-yard field goal attempt that came up short at the buzzer. But it was a rough, rough day at the office for him.

Pompei: Darnold had a bad game against a good defense. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that he’s been one of football’s best passers, or that he’s been a driving force in seven Seattle victories, or that he threw 23 more touchdowns than interceptions in his Comeback Player of the Year season in 2024. The concerning thing is he’s had bad performances in big games before. Darnold and the Seahawks may not be elite enough to win a Super Bowl, but it’s too soon to be sure of that. What we know is they’ve been one of the NFL’s upper class teams through 10 games and just lost a close game to a worthy opponent. Darnold and the Seahawks won’t fold after Sunday.

The Bills rallied past the Bucs at home, but their defense got gashed again, giving up at least 30 points and 195 rushing yards for the second game in a row. Is Allen enough to overcome a defense like that?

Nguyen: Allen can overcome it in the regular season and maybe win a playoff game, but it’s hard seeing them going far with this defense as bad as it is. If you can’t stop the run in December, you’re going to have a hard time winning games. A great quarterback could make it a coin flip, but the Bills’ offense has had issues as well. If they can’t run the ball, or fall behind and have to throw, they don’t have the pass catchers to support Allen. Dalton Kincaid is their best pass catcher, but he shouldn’t be a No. 1 option. Allen is putting a lot on his shoulders and the Bills’ 7-3 record is a reflection of how incredible he is, but unless he’s accounting for six touchdowns a game like he did against Tampa Bay, the Bills are going to be in a lot of toss-up-type games.

Pompei: Allen can erase a lot of problems — he already has in multiple games this season and he did it again Sunday. But no quarterback can overcome a defense that consistently gives up points and rushing yards the way the Bills recently have. It should be pointed out that it wasn’t Jonathan Taylor gashing the Bills Sunday — it was Sean Tucker, who not long ago was thought to be a third-stringer on the Bucs’ roster fringe. The Bills have aspirations — legitimate aspirations — to beat the best in the NFL and win a championship. For that to happen, though, they will need to tighten up defensively.

Jones: Allen is a beast. There’s a reason why he’s the reigning MVP and is annually in the conversation. But the toothless nature of the Bills’ defense is the reason I don’t view them as true Super Bowl contenders. And it’s not just me. In the last week, I picked the brains of multiple talent evaluators who have scouted Buffalo this season and the general consensus was that there’s too much on Allen, and that the Bills’ defense can’t be trusted. Allen has to play at an all-world level for Buffalo to beat most playoff teams, and that’s a huge ask. The Buccaneers are riddled with injuries and still managed to accumulate 32 points and 367 yards. How much worse would that gashing have been if Tampa Bay was at full force?

After stifling Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, the Broncos have now won five straight games when they’ve scored 22 or fewer points. Is Denver’s defense enough to overcome a wildly inconsistent offense?

Pompei: It depends how wildly inconsistent the Broncos offense will be down the stretch. Their defense is awfully good, arguably football’s best, and it appears to be ascending. And so far, their offense has been able to deliver at the most critical moments, as it did Sunday against K.C. But we all know quarterbacks decide games in December, January and February. For the Broncos to keep winning as they have, they probably will need more dynamic play from Bo Nix. There is reason to believe he can raise his level of play, however, given Sean Payton’s ability to bring out his best, his stout group of protectors and his continuing development.

Nguyen: The Broncos’ defense is great but that can’t overcome how inconsistent this offense is. As we know, you need lucky bounces in these types of games — Denver has won three straight games by three points —and you can’t count on that. It’ll certainly help if Nix can hit some of the deep shots that he was missing at an alarming rate before this week. No one will want to play the Broncos because of how strong they are defensively, but they won’t go far scoring 22 points a game. If Nix and the offense do develop just by a level or two, they’ll be cooking with fire. However, this isn’t a championship formula in this era.

Jones: You know what they say, “Defense wins championships.” It’s certainly making the difference for the Broncos. It’s hard to fully trust Denver because of those offensive inconsistencies. (Obviously, you’d like to see them score more than one touchdown.) But we’re seeing that their defense has the ability to hold just about any team in check, and that helps ease the pressure on the offense. Those key stops Denver routinely delivers provide Nix and the offense more opportunities to keep swinging, and eventually they connect and manage to do just enough. We know things often change in the playoffs, and just getting by offensively may not be enough. But this defense certainly has the look of a postseason-ready unit.

J.J. McCarthy struggled again in a 19-17 loss to the Bears. The Vikings have failed to crack 20 points in three of his last four starts. What is going wrong, and what’s your level of concern?

Pompei: McCarthy looked lost and rattled for most of the day. But with the game on the line, he played more like the analyst calling the game on Fox often did (the guy with seven Super Bowl rings). McCarthy played so well on what could have been the game-winning drive that the Vikings have to believe he can make significant improvements in the coming weeks. It’s easy to forget he’s had only five NFL starts (the Vikings have won two of them). That being said, they have no chance to compete for a playoff spot unless they get more consistency from McCarthy and the offense.

Jones: It depends on what we’re deciding to be concerned about. If we’re talking about the Vikings’ ability to win their division or snag a wild-card bid, then yeah, I’d say their situation is concerning. But the Vikings need to be realistic. This season isn’t about Super Bowl contention. It’s about McCarthy making up for a rookie season lost to knee surgery, and developing to the point where next year, he has a strong base and can deliver game-changing plays and give Minnesota a chance to contend. The Vikings have been caught in this tug of war — wanting to win in the short term, versus laying a foundation for the future. Yes, you want to win every game, but you’re going to take your lumps with what is essentially a rookie quarterback. He’ll look great some weeks, awful other weeks, promising in others. It’s just the nature of the beast. If they wanted to contend for a playoff berth or a Super Bowl shot this year, they should have paid Sam Darnold.

Nguyen: McCarthy is a tick slow with his reads, but he’s having a lot of trouble throwing to his left. This was an issue in college and it’s showing up over and over again. He missed quite a few big plays with wide-open receivers to that side, including an interception on an underthrown ball. Poetically, he threw a go-ahead touchdown to that side, but Jordan Addison was wide, wide open. This is a mechanical issue that may not be able to get fixed during the season, but it’s something he absolutely has to address. Right now, he just needs experience seeing the field, making reads and getting a feel for NFL timing.

On the other side of that game, Williams and the Bears pulled out another messy win. They’ve now won three straight games by a single score. Is this a fluke, or something sustainable?

Jones: I don’t think seven wins in the last eight games — and how the Bears are winning them — is flukish. I think we’re seeing a work-in-progress team make steady strides forward under its first-year head coach and his staff. They are learning how to win games in a variety of ways. We’ve seen blowouts, we’ve seen comebacks and now we’re seeing them pulling off gritty wins. Williams’ completion percentage wasn’t great on Sunday, but he was going against a tough Brian Flores defense for the second time this season. He did, however, take care of the football, and that matters. The Bears’ rushing attack is clicking, and that eases pressure on Williams, while the defense forced two interceptions and denied Minnesota on 8 of 11 third downs. Chicago also received help in the return game. This is complementary football. How far can this take them? I think they can go toe-to-toe with the Detroit Lions and Packers, who are both talented yet inconsistent. The playoffs aren’t at all far-fetched.

Caleb Williams and the Bears got another win, while J.J. McCarthy’s fourth-quarter heroics weren’t enough. (Ellen Schmidt / Getty Images)

Nguyen: Winning a bunch of one-score games is unsustainable. We’ve seen teams have their one-score luck reverse to the mean over and over again, with the most recent example being the Kansas City Chiefs, who broke the record for most one-score wins last season. This year, all five of Kansas City’s losses have been by one score. The good news for the Bears is that they can reasonably expect to get better. Williams is only in his second season and first year in Ben Johnson’s offense. The defense is showing signs of improving and should expect to acquire more talent in the offseason. Going from as bad as they were last year to competing the way they are now is a great sign.

Pompei: The Bears have had a run of good fortune, thanks partly to the NFL schedule makers. Soon, they will be challenged in ways they have not been. But they should be credited for winning games that are winnable. It’s a testament to the leadership, game planning and play calling of Johnson, who has made a lot of players better on offense. The Bears have been outstanding at not beating themselves, which puts them in a category with the best in the league. But they are a flawed team that is dependent on out-turnovering their opponents, and they have obvious vulnerabilities on defense and special teams.

After the Jaguars beat the Chargers and the Steelers topped the Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville, L.A. and Pittsburgh all have four losses. Which has the best chance at landing an AFC playoff spot?

Pompei: The Jaguars might not be the best of the three teams, but they might have the best chance of making the playoffs, given their remaining schedule and the forgiveness of the AFC South. Jacksonville is likely to be favored in four of its remaining seven games. If the Jags win those games, they’ll finish 10-7 with a tie-breaker advantage over the Chargers. The Steelers will be dangerous to any opponent if Aaron Rodgers is healthy — but keeping him healthy will be more challenging as the season goes on. As good as Justin Herbert is, he needs more help from his depleted offensive line. Herbert has been sacked 35 times already.

Nguyen: The Jaguars have the easiest schedule, but I also liked how clean of a game they played offensively on Sunday, swamping the Chargers 35-6. Coach Liam Coen used the drinking-through-the-water-hose approach when installing his offense. He didn’t start with the basics before adding on. His offense involves a ton of pre-snap movement and communication, and the Jaguars were initially getting flagged for offensive pre-snap penalties at the highest rate in the league. Sunday, they didn’t have one offensive penalty and the operation looked so much cleaner, which contributed to their best offensive outing against a good Chargers defense. The Steelers’ defense looks improved, but their offense is just too inconsistent and Rodgers suffered a left wrist injury on Sunday. The Chargers’ injuries just might be too much to overcome, and Herbert is just getting hit too much for them to sustain their 7-4 record.

Jones: Right now, I’d say the Steelers have the best chance. But some of this depends on Rodgers’ health. The Steelers have a tough final stretch of the season, and although they got the job done with Rodgers on the sideline, it did come against the Bengals, who were without their top two pass rushers and are limited on offense with Joe Burrow still sidelined. And even with Rodgers, the Steelers’ defensive inconsistencies might cause them to run out of gas. But for now, I’ll say they have the best chance, as long as they have Rodgers. The Chargers are on the verge of collapse under the weight of all their injuries. I’m still not sold on Jacksonville, which entered Sunday’s game having lost three of its last four. This was a good win against a wounded opponent, and maybe the Jaguars can build on this. They do have a chance because of their schedule. But they also still have two games remaining against the Indianapolis Colts and one against the Denver Broncos.