Bubble Watch 2025: Conference locks for men’s March Madness

Selection Sunday is a week away, and conference tournaments are getting underway, with the first automatic bids up for grabs this weekend.

As of now, according to ESPN Analytics’ tournament forecast model, 33 teams have achieved at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, while eight others are in solid shape (70-95%). But that leaves 21 teams sitting between 25% and 70% odds, their fates currently unknown.

Let’s break down teams by conference into categories based on their projected NCAA tournament status.

Teams with Lock status have at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, according to the BPI forecast. (Yes, this means that 5% of the time, a team marked as a lock will miss the tourney. We set the threshold there as a nod to the traditional standard for significance testing.)

A team marked Should Be In has a BPI probability from 70% to 94%. These are teams that, most likely, will get into the field of 68, though their fates are not completely assured yet.

And a team with the Work To Do tag has anywhere from 25% to 69% tourney odds per the BPI, or is featured in ESPN’s most recent Bracketology column by Joe Lunardi — who, let’s be honest, probably knows better than the algorithm — or has at least a 10% chance to make the tourney conditional on not getting an automatic bid. We’ll mark these Bracketology teams with an asterisk. (This is our fail-safe for catching teams that the BPI might be too low on.) The percentages will be more accurate the closer we get to Selection Sunday, as teams’ bodies of work become more solidified.

One other note: The ESPN Analytics model is a predictive forecast, meaning it is not representative of whether a team would make the tournament if its season ended today but rather gives each team a probability to make the tourney after simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times.

Here is our current projection of the bubble:

Auto-bids available (conference tournament champs): 31 teams
At-large bids available: 37 teams
Locks: 33 teams
The Bubble: 29 total teams
Should be in: 8 teams
Work to do: 21 teams

Here’s the rundown of teams — conference by conference — in order of which conferences projects to get the most NCAA bids. And we’ve listed expected number of bids for each of the power conferences. The teams are listed in order within each category based on their chances to get a tourney bid.

Notes: All times are Eastern. SOR = strength of record. SOS = strength of schedule. NET rankings = The NCAA’s official evaluation tool, which is the recommended rating for the committee to look at. SRS = Simple Rating System. WAB = Wins Above Bubble, a team’s extra wins beyond what a typical bubble team would have against its schedule.

Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten
Big 12 | ACC | Big East
Mid-majors | Others

SEC (11.9 expected bids)

Locks (95% tourney chance)

Alabama Crimson Tide (100%), Florida Gators (100%), Tennessee Volunteers (100%), Auburn Tigers (100%), Texas A&M Aggies (100%), Kentucky Wildcats (100%), Ole Miss Rebels (99%), Mississippi State Bulldogs (99%), Missouri Tigers (98%)

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Should be in (70% to 94%)

Georgia Bulldogs (75%)

Georgia’s multiple four-game losing streaks in January and February are a distant memory on the eve of the SEC tournament, as the Dawgs’ win over Vanderbilt on Saturday was their fourth in a row, elevating their tourney chances to 75% according to ESPN Analytics’ forecast model — and other models are even higher on them. They have now beaten Florida, Texas, South Carolina and Vandy in a series of high-stakes contests, proving somewhat decisively that they belong in the field of 68. The Commodores represented another W over a top-100 opponent for Georgia — No. 12 on the season — joining a list of quality wins that also includes a November win over the red-hot St. John’s. The Dawgs enters the SEC tourney feeling a lot more secure than they did a few weeks ago. (Updated March 8 at 2:43 p.m.)
Next game: SEC tournament (tips March 12)

Vanderbilt Commodores (73%)

A couple of losses to end the regular season — against Arkansas, then Georgia on Saturday — have made Vandy’s tournament future less secure than it seemed earlier this month. They drop the Commodores from 91% to 73% in the ESPN forecast and take them meaningfully away from what once seemed like «lock» territory. Their recent schedule has been brutal, with Arkansas being their only loss to a non-Quad I opponent since early January. Vanderbilt’s SOR and WAB rankings still hover around the mid-30s, making for a résumé that still looks like it will probably be enough to warrant inclusion among the SEC’s mammoth crop of NCAA tourney teams, though the Commodores do now rank behind bubble-dwelling Arkansas in NET. They may not be able to afford an early SEC tournament letdown. (Updated March 8 at 2:43 p.m.)
Next game: SEC tournament (tips March 12)

Oklahoma Sooners (70%)

Despite missing starting big man Sam Godwin with a knee injury, Oklahoma survived a brutal back-and-forth battle against Texas on Saturday night in Austin. The Sooners’ NCAA tournament odds rose sharply from around 50% to 70% with the victory — not exactly guaranteeing a tourney trip but giving them much more of a path than they seemed to have for most of February. Their résumé was better than we would probably expect from a 12-loss squad anyway: They rank in the mid-40s in both SOR and WAB, with seven wins over top-50 teams and 11 over the top 100, while 11 of their 12 losses have been against top-50 opponents. But the Sooners also went into Saturday ranked a shockingly low 14th in the SEC in NET; not even the behemoth of all conferences can accommodate that many tourney entries. That rank might improve after the win at Texas, and Oklahoma can look ahead to the SEC tournament with a first-round matchup against another bubble squad in Georgia. (Updated March 8 at 10:54 p.m.)
Next game: SEC tournament (tips March 12)

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Work to do (25% to 69%)

Arkansas Razorbacks (58%)

Arkansas’ regular-season finale against Mississippi State was an encapsulation of sorts for the Hogs’ whole season: After blowing a double-digit lead, the Razorbacks were in a tough fight late, but found a way to prevail. Zooming out, U of A has now won four of five and their tourney odds in the ESPN Analytics forecast went from below 50-50 to nearly 60%. The SEC is slated to send 12 teams to the Big Dance in the latest version of Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology, and the Hogs entered Saturday ranked exactly 12th in the SEC in NET. They also have a handful of head-to-head wins over quality teams, including bubble rivals Texas (twice), Vanderbilt and Georgia. As a mid-40s team by SOR and WAB with plenty of losses to good teams, the Hogs will probably present the selection committee with a very tough decision — but their case continues to grow as they enter the SEC tournament. (Updated March 8 at 2:26 p.m.)
Next game: SEC tournament (tips March 12)

Texas Longhorns (23%)

In a hard-fought, back-and-forth game with seismic implications for the SEC bubble, Texas fell at home to Oklahoma to end the regular season in tough fashion on Saturday night. The Longhorns’ 14th loss of the season dropped them to a mere 23% to make the NCAA tournament in the ESPN Analytics model, down from 37% at the start of the day. Texas’ NET ranking is around 40th, but its SOR and WAB ranks are around the mid-50s, making the Longhorns a tougher case to sell than many other bubble squads. Even after beating Mississippi State in overtime last Tuesday, they are 5-12 against top-50 BPI teams and 9-14 against the top 100. With dwindling at-large chances, it might now be all about how much noise the Longhorns can make in the SEC tournament. (Updated March 8 at 10:54 p.m.)
Next game: SEC tournament (tips March 12)

Outside looking in (1% to 24%)

There are no teams with probabilities below 24%

Big Ten (9.3 expected bids)

Locks

Wisconsin Badgers (100%), Oregon Ducks (100%), Michigan State Spartans (100%), Michigan Wolverines (100%), Maryland Terrapins (100%), Purdue Boilermakers (100%), UCLA Bruins (100%), Illinois Fighting Illini (100%)

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Should be in

There are no teams with probabilities between 70% to 94%

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Work to do

Indiana Hoosiers (55%)

After a loss Tuesday at Oregon, the Hoosiers got back to the previous month’s mostly winning ways with a crucial comeback win against Ohio State in Saturday’s regular-season finale. Indiana’s odds rose to 54% with the victory. That still makes for a highly uncertain future — but it was better than the alternative. The Hoosiers are now 4-10 against BPI top-50 teams and 11-12 against the top 100, with SOR and WAB ranks around the high-40s in the nation and a NET that ranked 11th in the conference on Saturday morning. There is indeed «work to do» in the Big 10 tourney, but their at-large case just got better when it absolutely needed to. (Updated March 8 at 6:51 p.m.)
Next game: Big Ten championship, March 12-16

Ohio State Buckeyes (46%)

If they end up missing the NCAA tournament, the Buckeyes can blame Saturday’s loss at Indiana as much as anything. For the first 32 minutes of play, Ohio State seldom trailed, but gave up a 25-11 run to close the game. A W would have boosted their tourney odds in ESPN Analytics’ forecast to 74%; the loss left them more likely to miss the tourney than make it (46%). Unless they manage an impressive run through the Big 10 tourney, how the committee views Ohio State’s 11th-ranked schedule strength remains the key. Ten of its 14 losses have come against BPI top-50 opponents, and all 14 were against the top 100. Predictive metrics have the Buckeyes in decent shape (all in the 30-range nationally), but their résumé metrics are less convincing — borderline top 50 in SOR and WAB. (Updated March 8 at 6:51 p.m.)
Next game: Big Ten championship, March 12-16

Nebraska Cornhuskers (25%)

As if things couldn’t get more painful for the Huskers, they followed Saturday’s loss on a last-second dagger 3 to visiting Minnesota with a marathon double-overtime defeat at Ohio State on Tuesday. Nebraska has dropped five of six, and its tournament chances are hovering in the mid-20% range in the ESPN Analytics model. The résumé metrics (mid-50s in SOR and WAB) are slipping at the worst possible time. From here, the Huskers will host Iowa to end the regular season, but they probably need to show out in the conference tournament to have a realistic chance to make the Big Dance. (Updated March 4 at 11:56 p.m.)
Next game: Sunday vs. Iowa, 12:30 p.m. (FOX)

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Outside looking in

Northwestern Wildcats (7%), USC Trojans (1%)

Big 12 (7.9 expected bids)

Locks

Iowa State Cyclones (100%), Houston Cougars (100%), Texas Tech Red Raiders (100%), Arizona Wildcats (100%), BYU Cougars (100%), Kansas Jayhawks (98%)

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Should be in

Baylor Bears (86%)

Things got a little scary late — when Baylor squandered a double-digit second-half lead — but the Bears held on to beat host TCU on Tuesday to boost their tourney odds above 80% in the ESPN Analytics predictor model. Other models aren’t quite as bullish on Baylor, so coach Scott Drew’s group might not be as safe as this «should be in» placement indicates. But it was a solid win against the nation’s No. 63 BPI team. The Bears have six wins against the BPI top 50 and 11 victories against the top 100, with an SOR and WAB around No. 40 nationally. They also entered Tuesday ranked seventh in NET in a conference primed to send eight teams to the Big Dance, and the Bears have a chance to add more to their résumé if they can beat Houston (however unlikely) at home in Saturday’s regular-season finale. (Updated March 4 at 10:24 p.m.)
Next game: Saturday vs. Houston, 10 p.m. (ESPN)

West Virginia Mountaineers (84%)

It was not as comfortable as it could have been with a 22-point lead at the half, but the Mountaineers nonetheless closed the regular season with a win against UCF on Saturday, perhaps building some momentum for the Big 12 tournament. After the win, the ESPN Analytics model elevated WVU’s probability to 84%, placing it firmly within «should be in» territory. It’s worth noting, however, that other models are somewhat less optimistic, and the Mountaineers entered the day ninth in NET in a conference that Bracketology projects for eight tourney teams. WVU has faced an extremely difficult schedule, though, and ranks in the top 40 in both SOR and WAB, with six wins versus top-50 opponents and 12 against the top 100. The Mountaineers might need a good run in the conference tourney to feel safer, but they are in solid shape if the committee respects their schedule strength. (Updated March 8 at 7:12 p.m.)
Next game: Big 12 tournament, March 11-15

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Work to do

Cincinnati Bearcats (12%)

Saturday’s 78-67 loss at Oklahoma State might have been the final nail in the coffin of Cincy’s NCAA tournament hopes, short of some kind of Big 12 tourney run. They are at 12% in the ESPN Analytics forecast, still carrying only three wins in 13 chances against BPI top-50 teams, though they do have 10 wins against the top 100. They entered Saturday ranked eighth in NET in a Big 12 conference that Joe Lunardi says he believes will send eight teams to the Big Dance — but they were swept head-to-head by West Virginia, the other bubble team they led in NET. Even though 10 of their 14 losses have come against the BPI top-50 (13 against the top-100), they picked a bad time to lose to the only Big 12 team (OSU) not in the top 100. (Updated March 8 at 5:57 p.m.)

Next game: Big 12 Tournament, March 11-15

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Outside looking in

TCU Horned Frogs (4%), Kansas State Wildcats (3%), UCF Knights (2%), Utah Utes (1%), Arizona State Sun Devils (1%)

Big East (4.6 expected bids)

Locks

St. John’s Red Storm (100%), Marquette Golden Eagles (99%), UConn Huskies (98%), Creighton Bluejays (96%)

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Should be in

There are no teams with BPI probabilities between 70% and 94%

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Work to do

Xavier Musketeers (55%)

Saturday’s win over Providence meant Xavier closed the regular season winning seven straight and eight of nine — a stretch that includes a big statement win against Creighton, the No. 25 BPI team in the country. Xavier’s tourney odds received an upgrade in the process, and they now sit at 55% in the ESPN Analytics model. That number isn’t higher despite the late hot streak because the Musketeers still have just four wins against the top-50 teams in BPI (and carry a borderline top-40 SOR ranking, with a WAB just inside the top 50). Xavier could still get caught up in a Big East numbers game when it comes to NCAA berths, but it’s worth noting that they will go into the conference tournament ranked fifth in NET among a conference that Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology column predicted would send five teams to March Madness. (Updated March 8 at 6:53 p.m.)
Next game: Big East tournament, March 12-15

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Outside looking in

Villanova Wildcats (10%), Butler Bulldogs (1%), Georgetown Hoyas (1%)

ACC (4.0 expected bids)

Locks

Duke Blue Devils (100%), Clemson Tigers (100%), Louisville Cardinals (100%)

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Should be in

There are no teams with a BPI probability from 70% to 94%

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Work to do

North Carolina Tar Heels (35%)

Carolina hung tough with Duke in Saturday’s season finale … for a while. But the Blue Devils proved too much, pulling away from UNC with a 23-10 run in the final 11:27 of the game. The loss snapped a six-game Tar Heels win streak, but more importantly it erased what could have been a huge booster for UNC in the ESPN forecast model. The consensus of other models has the Tar Heels with slightly higher odds, and it’s worth noting nine of UNC’s 12 losses have come against top-50 opponents, including four top-5 teams — Auburn, Alabama, Duke and Florida. (The other three losses came against the top 100.) But a lot of the uncertainty for UNC revolves around the number of teams the ACC will receive in the NCAA field, as well as how the selection committee weighs double-digit losses against a strong schedule. Coach Hubert Davis’ group now probably needs to do some damage in the ACC tourney starting on Tuesday. (Updated March 8 8:56 p.m.)
Next game: ACC tournament, March 12-15

SMU Mustangs (35%)

Saturday’s trip to Tallahassee ended SMU’s regular season on a sour note, as it fell to Florida State for loss No. 4 in the past seven games. The Ponies are a fascinating bubble team, with overall metrics — including rankings around the mid-40s in NET, SOR and WAB — that warrant at-large consideration despite a near total lack of high-quality wins (zero victories over top-50 BPI opponents). The Mustangs’ chances in the ESPN forecast model fell from 48% to 36% after the FSU loss, so there are now big questions about whether they have done enough in an ACC that doesn’t have any extra NCAA berths to spare. The conference tournament is SMU’s last chance to bolster a résumé that frankly might not be enough at the moment. (Updated March 8 at 6:54 p.m.)
Next game: ACC tournament, March 12-15

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (30%)

Wake Forest seemed to take out its frustrations from a blowout loss to Duke last Monday in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech on Saturday, crushing the Jackets to pick up their 21st win of the season. The Demon Deacons’ tourney odds in the ESPN Analytics model still sit around 30%, due to résumé rankings in the 40s and just three wins vs. the BPI top 50, though they have 11 vs. the top 100. The conference is down this season, with Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology listing only three ACC teams in the field — bad news for a Wake squad that ranks seventh in the conference in NET. They will need to make some noise in the conference tournament to boost these odds. (Updated March 8 at 4:36 p.m.)
Next game: ACC tournament (tips March 11)

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Outside looking in

Pittsburgh Panthers (1%), Stanford Cardinal (1%)

Mid-majors (AAC, MW, WCC, A-10, MVC, C-USA)

Locks

Memphis Tigers (100%), Saint Mary’s Gaels (100%), New Mexico Lobos (96%)

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Should be in

Gonzaga Bulldogs (88%)

The Zags took care of business against San Francisco on Saturday night, beating the Dons by 20 to close the regular season with nine wins in their last 11 games. Gonzaga has an interesting résumé: eight wins over BPI top-100 opponents, but only one against top-50 teams, plus a mid-40s SOR ranking. Yet the Bulldogs are probably far better than those metrics give them credit for, with NET, KenPom and BPI ratings that sit among the top 10 in the nation. That makes them sizable favorites to win the WCC tourney, according to ESPN Analytics, despite Saint Mary’s sweeping them in the regular season, and this might prove important as the league is tracking toward sending two teams to the Dance in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update. (Updated March 2 at 9:06 a.m.)
Next game: Saturday vs. San Francisco, 11 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN+)

Drake Bulldogs (84%)

Drake’s odds in the ESPN Analytics forecast leapt to 84% after it beat Belmont on Saturday to advance to the MVC tournament final. The Bulldogs don’t necessarily have to win the conference to make it in — they boast mid-30s SOR and WAB rankings, which means their résumé is quite competitive with the rest of the bubble overall. Of course, they also have zero wins against top-50 opponents (three vs. top-100) and the MVC has received only one NCAA bid in six of the past seven tournaments, so there is still pressure to leave no doubt in Sunday’s title game against fellow bubble resident Bradley. But as things stand, ESPN’s model gives the Bulldogs better than a 50% chance to snag an at-large bid even if they don’t win the conference. (Updated March 8 at 5:58 p.m.)
Next game: Sunday vs. Bradley, 2:10 p.m. (CBS)

Utah State Aggies (78%)

Coming off bad losses at Boise State and Colorado State, the Aggies got back to their winning ways as heavy favorites against Air Force in the regular-season finale, crushing the lowly Falcons by 40. Utah State’s odds are 78% in the ESPN forecast after the win, thanks in part to a 10-6 record against top-100 competition, including a win over Saint Mary’s (which completed the season sweep of Gonzaga) and a sweep of San Diego State. The Aggies also rank in the mid-30s in both SOR and WAB. Other models are a bit lower on their chances — the back-to-back blowout losses and the sweep by New Mexico didn’t help Utah State in the predictive metrics (it’s 57th in KenPom, for instance). But with the second-best NET in a conference Joe Lunardi pegs for four bids, it still seems unlikely for the Aggies to not be among the MWC’s contingent of tourney teams. (Updated March 8 at 6:01 p.m.)
Next game: Mountain West tournament, March 12-15

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Work to do

VCU Rams (69%)

Each game can swing your tourney odds by a lot at this stage of the season, and VCU lost 12 points of NCAA tourney probability when Max Shulga’s potential game-tying 3 clanged off the back rim to seal the Rams’ 79-76 loss to Dayton on Friday night, ending its regular season with a loss. VCU entered the game having won 15 of the previous 16 regular season games; now the Rams must prepare for the A-10 tournament, where they are solid favorites over the field. And in terms of at-large bona fides, VCU has four wins against BPI top-100 opponents (but zero versus the top 50) and ranks around 50th in SOR and WAB. If needed, VCU will have a solid at-large case to make, as the A-10 has sent multiple teams to the Big Dance in three of the past four seasons. (Updated March 8 at 9:02 a.m.)
Next game: Atlantic 10 tournament, March 12-16

Bradley Braves (47%)

It took a second-half comeback, but Bradley advanced past Valparaiso in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament to preserve its chances to make the NCAA’s field of 68. The Braves have won five straight and eight of nine, but their 47% chance to make the tourney field in the ESPN forecast model is almost entirely about their chance to win the conference. While Bradley has been an appealing mid-major all season, it lacks signature wins (zero vs. the BPI top 50) and sits just inside the top 80 in NET, so an auto-bid is basically its only real path to the brackets. Its MVC final opponent Drake, by contrast, has a vastly superior résumé and might be able to snag an at-large bid with a loss, creating an interesting juxtaposition for the conference title game. (Updated March 8 at 8:28 p.m.)
Next game: Sunday vs. Drake, 2:10 p.m. (CBS)

San Diego State Aztecs (45%)

After following their recent loss to Utah State with a couple of wins, the Aztecs lost to UNLV Tuesday as the Rebels pulled away late. The loss hurt SDSU’s tourney chances by no small amount, dropping them from 70% to mid-40% in the ESPN Analytics forecast. San Diego State had been improving its standing inside the bubble mix, and the team’s résumé rankings are not bad (low-40s in SOR /WAB) with five wins against the BPI top 50 and eight against the top 100. But its NET is only borderline top 50, and now ranks fourth in the Mountain West. The MWC may send four teams to the Big Dance and make all of this a moot point, but the ESPN model thinks they’re more likely to have three teams, which drives the uncertainty around SDSU’s placement. (Updated March 1 at 10:20 p.m.)
Next game: Saturday vs. Nevada, 10:30 p.m. (FS1)

Liberty Flames (44%)

Liberty finished the regular season with a lopsided win at Western Kentucky — now the Flames’ NCAA tournament chances rest on the Conference USA tournament. According to the ESPN forecast model, they remain in the mid-40% range to make the NCAA tourney, but that number falls to around 1% if they can’t secure an automatic bid and must make their case as an at-large team. C-USA has only 1.0 expected NCAA teams in the model and hasn’t sent multiple teams to the Big Dance since 2012, and Liberty’s résumé rankings aren’t likely to change that without a conference title. (Updated March 8 at 4:51 p.m.)
Next game: Conference USA tournament (tips March 11)

Dayton Flyers (30%)

Dayton returned to the bubble with a 79-76 win against VCU in the A-10 regular-season finale Friday night. The ESPN model thinks the Flyers have a 30% chance to make the tourney overall, but an 18% chance conditional on failing to secure an automatic bid. Their roughly 60th-place rankings in SOR and WAB make them a fringe résumé team in the aggregate, but they also have four wins against the top 50. The A-10 has sent two teams to the tourney in three of the past four years, and the Flyers rank second in the conference in NET (with a H2H win over VCU now), so Dayton could be an interesting team to watch if it can win some conference tourney games as well. (Updated March 8 at 9:07 a.m.)
Next game: Atlantic 10 tournament, March 12-16

North Texas Mean Green (28%)

Atin Wright’s 42-point explosion against Charlotte on Thursday led North Texas to its seventh straight win to keep the Mean Green in the bubble conversation, but they still have more work to do. With their résumé rankings in the mid-50s, their conditional at-large chances floating around 8% and no strong résumé-boosting matchups left on the regular-season schedule (they finish vs. Temple on Sunday), their best chance of making the Big Dance very likely hinge on winning the American Athletic Conference tournament. (Updated March 7 at 7:52 a.m.)
Next game: Sunday at Temple, 2 p.m. (ESPN+)

Boise State Broncos (24%)

The Broncos saw a run of five straight victories (and nine in 10 games) end Friday night against bubble rival Colorado State, which hurt their tourney odds (now at 24% in the ESPN model). Boise State now ranks borderline top 60 in both SOR and WAB, but it has eight wins against top-100 competition (including four vs. the top 50) and ranks third in the Mountain West in NET (ahead of San Diego State and Colorado State). Because of the mediocre résumé stats, the ESPN model thinks the Broncos probably need a run in the conference tournament. But they’re also squarely among a group of MWC teams that would force the selection committee to think hard about how many entries the conference should get. (Updated March 8 at 9:13 a.m.)
Next game: Mountain West tournament, March 12-15

Colorado State Rams (22%)

Colorado State joined the bubble with its inclusion in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, and the Rams further proved they belonged by closing the regular season with an important win at Boise State behind Nique Clifford’s career-high 36 points. Colorado State is part of a growing group of Mountain West teams that are making Bubble Watch noise. The Rams’ résumé rankings (around Nos. 55-60 in SOR and WAB) aren’t especially impressive compared with other bubble teams’, but they now boast a trio of wins over BPI top-50 squads, nine wins over top-100 foes and they rank closer to 50th in NET. In that last category, the Rams are fifth in an MWC that still only figures to send three to four teams to the Big Dance, but they aren’t too far behind San Diego State or Boise State, and they have H2H wins over both (including a sweep of the latter). (Updated March 8 at 9:10 a.m.)
Next game: Mountain West tournament, March 12-15

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Outside looking in

George Mason Patriots (19%), Jacksonville State Gamecocks (14%), Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (12%), Saint Joseph’s Hawks (11%), UAB Blazers (11%)

Other conferences

Locks

There are no teams with at least a 95% chance

Should be in

There are no teams with BPI probabilities between 70% and 94%

Work to do

UC San Diego Tritons (69%)

The Tritons nearly let a 22-point second-half lead go before holding on to beat Long Beach for their 12th straight victory, keeping their at-large hopes alive in the 25% range, should they not secure an automatic bid with a Big West tournament win next week. Their NET ranking is in the mid-30s, which helps their résumé, even though their BPI hovers around the high-50s and they have a poor strength of schedule (outside the top 250). They scored an early-season win at Utah State — but that was their lone W over a top-50 opponent, and it has lost a little of its luster with the Aggies recently hitting a snag. Regardless, UCSD needs to win its regular-season finale Saturday at UC Davis. It will then have a bye to the semis in the Big West tourney, so we will need to wait to see if the Tritons need to make an at-large case. (Updated March 7 at 8:09 a.m.)
Next game: Saturday at UC Davis, 5 p.m. (ESPN+)

UC Irvine Anteaters (40%)

The Anteaters extended their win streak to four by beating UC Davis on Thursday, helping to recover from a bad loss to Northridge on Feb. 20. UC Irvine makes the cut here by checking in with a 40% chance to get into the tourney in the ESPN model, with a 12% at-large chance conditional on not winning the Big West. That said, depending on who wins the conference tournament, the Anteaters’ at-large case appears somewhat less compelling than that of the Tritons. UC Irvine ranks a bit behind UC San Diego in both SOR and WAB, with far worse placement in NET, KenPom, Torvik and BPI. (Irvine is only a borderline top-100 team by the last metric.) With no games against BPI top-50 teams and just one win against the top 100 — and the Big West not having sent multiple NCAA tourney teams since 2005 — it’s more likely UC Irvine will have to win the conference tourney to get in. (Updated March 7 at 11:40 a.m.)
Next game: Saturday at UC Santa Barbara, 10 p.m. (ESPN+)

Outside looking in

There are no teams with odds below 24%