Forget everything you thought you knew.
That’s not a cliché — in 2026, it’s literally true of Formula 1. The cars are new, the engines are new, the rules are new, and the pecking order that Lando Norris mastered last season may already be obsolete.
A season of unknowns embarks this weekend, March 8, at the Australian Grand Prix. Our writers have staked out their predictions for the season below.
Constructors’ podium (top 3 teams)
Luke Smith: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren. Preseason testing did little to shake the thinking that Mercedes could be the team to beat this year, even with Ferrari’s eye-catching times. It’s going to be close between the leading four teams, and they’ll all win races — but Mercedes will come out on top.
Madeline Coleman: Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren. The Mercedes engine was strong during preseason testing, but the team that intrigued me the most was Ferrari’s early strength. It appears more competitive, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to top Mercedes.
Michael Bailey: McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari. The early reactions from the other teams scream Mercedes engine advantage. McLaren is a Mercedes engine customer, has a recent winning streak and a mature driver lineup. Ferrari will be closer but still fall short. Red Bull won’t have the engine to compete often enough.
Alex Kalinauckas: Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari. Given Mercedes’ position, how well its Williams customer team did the last time there was an engine formula change in 2014, and that McLaren is the reigning champion, I can see this as a scrap between them. Ferrari will flatter to deceive, and Red Bull will remain a one-car team overall. I’ve seen those two movies too many times.
Patrick Iversen: Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari. It’ll go down to the wire, but only two of the top four teams have the most promising engine and zero questions about their driver lineup.
Drivers’ podium (top 3 in the championship)
Smith: George Russell, Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen. Russell has shown signs of a driver capable of winning the world championship. This will be the year that Mercedes arms him with a car to make it happen.
Coleman: Russell, Verstappen, Leclerc. All three drivers can fight for and win a championship. It comes down to whether they have a car capable of consistently contending for podiums and victories. Russell seems set to have one under him this year. But, as last season showed, you can’t count out Verstappen.
Bailey: Norris, Russell, Leclerc. Norris, with a championship under his belt, could be a step closer to being a complete racer. That lack of experience might be what costs Russell. It feels like Verstappen, Oscar Piastri and Lewis Hamilton could all be extremely close behind these three.
Kalinauckas: Russell, Norris, Verstappen. Russell has long looked like championship material, and winning a title will surely settle Norris. That’s not to say Piastri is now a bust — far from it — or that Antonelli isn’t the real deal too. They’ll all be close. And even if the Red Bull is off the pace, Verstappen can never be discounted.
Iversen: Russell, Verstappen, Leclerc. Russell has quietly been title-capable for two years now. Verstappen is Verstappen. And a better Ferrari beneath him will unleash Leclerc.
Will Haas once again rise to fifth this season? (Sona Maleterova / Getty Images)
Best of the rest (5th place constructor)
Smith: Haas may be one of F1’s smallest teams, but testing proved it has a solid starting point this season. It also has two quick drivers in Oliver Bearman and Esteban Ocon. I’m tipping it to match its best F1 finish and break into the top five this year.
Coleman: Haas. While Alpine and Racing Bulls seem to also be in the mix for the top of the midfield, Haas showed last year that it has two drivers capable of fighting for points. Consistency will be key.
Bailey: Haas. Looking at engines, driver lineups and recent history, this is a tough call. I’m also going to back Haas with its reliable drivers and a useful Ferrari engine. Even though I’m not sure I trust the team’s ability to keep developing its car to stay on top of the midfield pack, I’d still take it over everyone else.
Kalinauckas: Alpine, because it has the Mercedes engine, and Williams has had a poor preseason. Alpine also does well around regulation changes. I can’t see it getting much further than the fringes of the top four and Pierre Gasly grabbing the odd heroic result.
Iversen: Haas. I’ll believe Alpine’s consistency when I see it, and Haas has been nothing if not consistently decent the last 18 months.
Worst of the worst (11th place constructor)
Smith: I’m picking Cadillac for this, but “worst” feels harsh on a team that literally a year ago didn’t have an entry to join the grid for 2026! Expectations for this year were always going to be low, considering the monumental challenge of even getting on the grid. I expect the team to start ahead of Aston Martin before falling back to the bottom, but it’s already looking respectable.
Coleman: Aston Martin. That preseason testing stretch in Bahrain was a disaster. While it has the infrastructure and expertise to right the ship, it’ll be struggling in the back with Cadillac for a while.
Bailey: Aston Martin. The Honda-powered Aston Martin looks like the F1 equivalent of that “dumpster on fire” meme. The fact that it’s not just an aerodynamics issue means it will take more than Adrian Newey’s genius to fix it.
Kalinauckas: Aston Martin. Teams don’t come back from awful preseasons like this one, let alone in a cost-cap era. And those financial limits also apply to its engine supplier, Honda, which had to spend its way out of a dire situation with McLaren a decade ago. Things will improve, but not by enough.
Iversen: Cadillac. In the end, Aston Martin has more resources and experience than Cadillac and Audi to dig out of an early-season hole into a slightly smaller hole. Based on preseason testing, I’m more confident in Audi than Cadillac. And I don’t feel confident about this pick at all.
Surprise pole position
Smith: This feels like throwing at a dartboard blind. But I’m going to go with Gasly lucking in somewhere with some rain and putting his Alpine on pole.
Coleman: Carlos Sainz Jr. He came close in 2025, starting second in Baku and third in Las Vegas. Williams is a question after missing the Barcelona test and not particularly leaping out during Bahrain testing. Still, Sainz managed to pull off multiple surprises last year.
Bailey: Isack Hadjar. What constitutes a surprise ahead of a season with such change? How about Hadjar showing he can rise to his latest challenge, becoming the second driver Red Bull has been demanding, and delivering a stunning pole lap somewhere that renders his inevitable podium no surprise at all.
Kalinauckas: Bearman. If Kevin Magnussen can claim a pole for Haas at the 2022 Brazilian GP, then a driver as seriously quick as Bearman can too. Sure, he’s on the verge of a race ban, but I see plenty of positive moments in his season, with benefactor Ferrari keeping a close watch on his progress.
Iversen: Hamilton. It speaks to where we’re at in 2026 that this qualifies as a surprise, but I think he finally gets it done in red at least once.
Surprise podium
Smith: I hate to be pessimistic here, but nobody outside the “big four” teams gets a podium in 2026. The new cars look reliable, and the performance gaps between the leading squads and the midfield should widen. Counting on six of the leading eight cars having some setback is a lot.
Coleman: Bearman. He came so close during the Mexico City Grand Prix, finishing fourth, but showed he was capable of fighting some of the top cars, especially when he had a competitive car.
Bailey: Ah, no, Luke — let’s dream! On his second trip around the block, Gabriel Bortoleto has the talent to shine on an unpredictable day and deliver Audi’s first podium in F1.
Kalinauckas: Alex Albon. Once Williams gets itself in shape around excess weight on its FW48 car, it’ll be back on the pace, as its aero concepts have been sound the last few years. Albon was mighty in the early part of 2025 and saw Sainz roar back to claim podiums when the leading teams stumbled. It could easily be Albon’s turn this time.
Iversen: Nobody. There are no surprises in a ten-month parade between four teams.
Most-improved team
Smith: A very low bar off its miserable 2025, but I’m expecting a step from Alpine. The switch to Mercedes engines has definitely helped, and the car looked solid through preseason testing. The rebuild at Enstone may be ongoing, but this year should be a step in the right direction.
Coleman: Alpine. Given it finished last in the constructors’ championship by a healthy margin, the only way to go is up from here. The Mercedes engine will help.
Bailey: I mean, Alpine couldn’t get much worse, and it’s been handed a free ride with Mercedes’ engine advantage — even if Gasly might do all the leg work. So I guess it’s them. But any team overtaking McLaren, which won the constructors’ championship by more than 360 points last year, will also have a shout.
Kalinauckas: Alpine. It can’t be any worse than last year, given Cadillac’s arrival and Aston’s Honda debacle. So, rising from last to leading the midfield in fifth would be impressive from Alpine, around the gains from switching to Mercedes power. There’s pressure there, too, though, given how Alpine jettisoned Renault’s works engine program to sign that deal.
Iversen: Cadillac. Going from nonexistence to existence is a remarkable feat. So, as soon as the first race begins, I win this category!
Most-improved driver
Smith: The new style of cars should suit Hamilton much better and give him and Ferrari more to smile about in 2026. He’ll be back on the podium this year.
Coleman: Kimi Antonelli. The Mercedes driver endured a bit of a rollercoaster debut season, hitting a performance snag during the European stretch of the 2025 calendar and struggling with confidence. When he’s on it, the Italian driver stars. He now knows what to expect in F1, and he’ll have the powerful Mercedes engine. I’d expect him to be more competitive and a greater threat than in 2025.
Bailey: Gasly took just 22 points last season, and he is a much better driver than that. If there really is improvement at Alpine, the Frenchman will be the beneficiary.
Kalinauckas: Antonelli. If the Mercedes is as good as predicted, he’ll win his first F1 races this year — just with Russell doing so more often and the McLaren drivers getting in amongst it too. Mercedes doesn’t need Antonelli to win the title this year; given Russell’s leadership, it just needs him to avoid the poor dip of the middle part of his rookie year. I think he’ll nail that.
Iversen: Bortoleto. He showed flashes in 2025, and his baseline has only continued to rise since his time in the junior ranks. Bortoleto fits the “sophomore leap” profile perfectly: young, already on par with an experienced teammate and with a full season of track knowledge to build on.
This could be a familiar sight for Aston Martin fans in 2026 (Sona Maleterova / Getty Images)
Biggest disappointment (team or driver)
Smith: It’s hard to look past Aston Martin for this one. After so much focus on 2026 over recent years, with the start of the new Honda partnership and the arrival of Adrian Newey, it fell flat during testing. This was meant to be the season that its grand plan to fight at the front in F1 came to fruition. Getting in the midfield fight may be the best-case scenario.
Coleman: I’ll go with a driver instead: Franco Colapinto. I hope I am wrong here, because the Argentine showed promise early during his first F1 stint with Williams, when he replaced Logan Sargeant. But crashes marred the end of that chapter, and Gasly consistently outperformed Colapinto last season. Granted, this is the first F1 season where he’ll benefit from preseason testing and the Mercedes engine, but will it be enough?
Bailey: I’m still scarred by backing Hamilton to have a stellar first season at Ferrari and realizing my folly within two Melbourne practice sessions. This year, I worry about Antonelli in his second season and in a car with big expectations. He is still at a maturity and experience disadvantage, and it might be years three and four when he can truly come good.
Kalinauckas: Aston Martin. It already is. This was supposed to be the dawn of a new era of Aston with Honda, and that has happened … except it’s exactly the McLaren-Honda fiasco from a decade ago come again. Honda has badly let Aston down, but the team has been crowing about its new resources and the opportunities offered by the 2026 rules for so long that no PR messaging that this is a “long-time project” holds water.
Iversen: Norris. We’re so accustomed to drivers going on multi-year championship tears, but I genuinely don’t see how Norris repeats this season. Even if McLaren is good, it won’t be dominant, and the top four teams all have drivers capable of stepping up on any given weekend. I think his teammate has another, higher level to reach than he does.
Biggest story from outside the cockpit
Smith: Get ready for another season where Verstappen’s future becomes a big point of focus. The will-they-won’t-they story between him and Mercedes will surely rekindle, and given Verstappen’s early critique of the new cars and rules, anything but a title-contending car will fuel discourse over his long-term future.
Coleman: Hamilton’s racing future. The seven-time world champion struggled throughout the last regulation change. The question at the top of everyone’s mind is whether he’s able to return to his pre-2022 form or whether his F1 retirement is closer than we think. Leclerc outshone Hamilton during his first season with Ferrari, though it does take time to adjust to a new team’s operations and car.
Bailey: This is the hardest point to predict from a tricky bunch. F1 feels settled with its drivers and team principals compared to last year, and the new regulations give further reason for patience. Perhaps if Ferrari falls short on strategy when the performance is there, then conversations over Frédéric Vasseur’s position will come to a head once again. If it really goes wrong, we could get eye-catching departures and two disgruntled drivers.
Kalinauckas: The potential cancellation of races in the Middle East on the back of the current conflict. The Bahrain and Saudi races are still six and seven weeks away, respectively, and all sides will leave it as long as possible before deciding the usual awful game of “contract chicken,” but I can’t see how they can safely go ahead given what has just happened.
Iversen: The conflagration at Aston Martin. You hate to see people lose jobs, but … you get the feeling some will be losing theirs.
Boldest possible prediction, anything goes
Smith: Mercedes finally signs Verstappen for 2027 and partners him with Russell, with Antonelli placed at one of its customer teams. Cue silly season bedlam.
Coleman: I like Luke’s prediction, and I don’t think it’s possible to top that boldness unless you go with a Ferrari world championship. To be clear, I don’t think this is Ferrari’s year, but I think it’s coming during this regulation era. However, I do feel that Cadillac won’t finish at the bottom of the constructor standings. It may be the team’s first season in F1, but it has deep experience with its team principal (Graeme Lowdon) and its drivers (Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas).
Bailey: It all goes wrong in 2026, and as a result, Verstappen, Fernando Alonso, and Hamilton all call time on their F1 careers. Stunning, right?
Kalinauckas: A Ferrari driver leads every first race lap, given the car’s sensational start performances in testing. And the team’s title win drought will tick towards the 20th anniversary of the 2008 constructors’ championship. Or the reverse: Ferrari is actually the team to beat, and Leclerc finally takes the title his speed has long deserved. It could happen (and a big part of me hopes it does)!
Iversen: U.S. President Donald Trump shows up at either Miami or Las Vegas — to boos, this time.
