MLS 2026 season expert predictions: Cup winner, big signings and a new MVP

A new MLS season means a clean slate and an array of possibilities – no matter how much prevailing wisdom suggests that the league’s strongest only got stronger.

If there’s one thing astute followers of MLS over the previous 30 seasons will have gleaned, it’s that thinking something is a sure thing can be a fool’s errand. And while eventual champion Inter Miami was a popular preseason pick to become the league’s best last season, it’s easy to forget that there was a fallow period leading into the FIFA Club World Cup where Miami won just two of nine matches (2-3-4) and another after it where it won two of seven (2-3-2) and was starting to feel the heat and hear proclamations of the squad being overrated and too old.

Nevertheless, even after strong opening showings in Concacaf Champions Cup play by fellow contenders San Diego FC and LAFC, Miami remains the favorite to repeat and become the first back-to-back MLS Cup winner since the LA Galaxy in 2011-12 (something Miami co-owner and former Galaxy star David Beckham surely is mindful of). Even so, the club is not a unanimous pick to win it all among The Athletic’s expert panel of Tom Bogert, Henry Bushnell, Felipe Cardenas and Paul Tenorio – nor is Lionel Messi a hands-down pick to win a third straight MVP award.

We take on those questions and a handful of other significant ones entering an MLS season that will have the 2026 World Cup as its backdrop and could yet churn out some of those “very MLS” surprises en route to crowning its 31st champion.

With all that said, here are our sure-to-be-right predictions for the last February-to-December MLS season:

Who will win MLS Cup?

TOM BOGERT: LAFC 

No, not because I’m trying to be a contrarian by picking against Inter Miami. Miami will be MLS Cup favorites, but LAFC is right there, with Son Heung-min and Denis Bouanga up top and a typically solid midfield and defensive base behind them. LAFC has been successful every year. The playoffs can be a crapshoot with weird results in one-game sample sizes, though it feels less that way this year than normal.

HENRY BUSHNELL: Inter Miami

Duh. Now, do I think they’ll cruise from February straight through December? No. Messi’s load will be managed more carefully than ever. And MLS, as always, will get weird. But it’d be silly to pick anybody else.

FELIPE CARDENAS: Nashville SC

In 2025 I picked Nashville to finish dead last. They were my wooden spoon prediction. Fans in Nashville took particular umbrage with my assessment of the 2025 squad. Nashville hasn’t upgraded in 2026 to a point where I am ready to take that back. It did sign free-agent star Cristian Espinoza, though. The Argentine may not rank in the top five in MLS jersey sales, but he should give Nashville, a blue-collar team, a creative spark it desperately needs. Start planning the parade through Lower Broadway.

PAUL TENORIO: Inter Miami

I think you have to pick Miami. This might be the best and deepest MLS team in history. Messi has to stay healthy, but they got better at positions of need (goalkeeper, center back, No. 9).

Who will win the Supporters’ Shield? (Best record)

BOGERT: Inter Miami 

The team may not focus on this as a primary goal, but not only does it have the top-end talent led by Messi, it’s much deeper than last year. Perhaps more to the point for this trophy, Miami is much, much better defensively. Expectations are always high in Miami with a Messi-led team, but we genuinely could be looking at a new league record for points.

BUSHNELL: Vancouver Whitecaps 

They could have, and perhaps should have, won it last year. And they should be similarly good in 2026. They have the right blend of depth and top-end talent to be a regular-season juggernaut.

CARDENAS: Inter Miami 

Messi & Co. would love to win a treble this season. This is a very good MLS team but I don’t think Miami is quite at that level just yet. And while knockout tournaments can be punishingly unfair, Miami will not have to test fate during the regular season. They’ll run away with the Supporters’ Shield.

TENORIO: LAFC

I usually like the idea of picking a non-Concacaf Champions Cup team to win the Shield, but I don’t know if that holds as true as it did in the past. I’ll take a Western Conference team to rack up more points this year and roll with LAFC.

Who will take home the wooden spoon? (Worst record)

BOGERT: Sporting Kansas City 

I expect a lot more signings to come, but, right now the roster is threadbare. Especially defensively. Dejan Joveljić would find a way to score goals even if our staff of Athletic writers were his chance creators. The dude just finds the back of the net. But whoever starts in goal for SKC will be picking the ball out of the net a whole lot more.

BUSHNELL: CF Montréal 

There are 8-10 genuine contenders for this “honor,” but I’ll go with the cheapest club in MLS.

CARDENAS: CF Montréal

I should have chosen Montréal in 2025. I’d have a stronger leg to stand on regarding this prediction today. I’m not going to overthink this one. Montréal, here’s your cuillère en bois.

TENORIO: Sporting Kansas City

There is clearly still work to do on the roster, so maybe this changes over the next few weeks and months, but looking at MLS right now I think the smart bet is with Sporting KC.

Might Antoine Griezmann and/or Robert Lewandowski find a way to MLS after the 2026 World Cup? (Ricardo Mazalan / AP)

Who will be the big post-World Cup arrival?

BOGERT: Robert Lewandowski

Chicago’s chase of Lewandowski is very real — and I imagine it’s not the only MLS club interested in him, though it is the most likely. There will be plenty of other names to be linked with MLS clubs in the next few months around and after the World Cup, but let’s start with the known pursuit of Lewandowski.

BUSHNELL: Lewandowski 

Of course, Poland still has to qualify to make it a “big post-World Cup arrival,” but either way, a summer move for the Polish star to Chicago makes all the sense in the world — unless Lewandowski, 37, is convinced he still has a year or two left amongst the European elite.

CARDENAS: Antoine Griezmann

The France international is the easy pick here. In fact, Paul and I both predicted the Atlético Madrid attacker would make the move to MLS last summer. After spending more than a month in the U.S. for the World Cup, the desire to attend NFL and NBA games in person will be too difficult to turn down.

TENORIO: Lewandowski/Casemiro

It’s going to be Robert Lewandowski. If Poland doesn’t qualify and I had to bet on another player … I’ll say Casemiro.

Which core USMNT player will come home after the World Cup?

BOGERT: None

I don’t think there is one that for sure will. It would be easy to connect Weston McKennie, given FC Cincinnati’s failed pursuit of him in the summer of 2024 and his contract expiring this summer, but it feels more likely his future remains in Europe.

BUSHNELL: None

Every member of the true core is still in or near their prime, and pretty far above MLS’ level. Many also spent their formative soccer years outside the league and its academies; they don’t feel a romantic pull toward home. So, there just isn’t an obvious option, unless you consider someone like Haji Wright or — takes a deep breath — Gio Reyna part of the core.

CARDENAS: Tyler Adams

It just feels inevitable. Adams’ injury history has been the main detriment to earning continuity in Europe. He has a young family, and if his boyhood club, the Red Bulls, don’t make the move, another MLS club will.

TENORIO: Tim Weah

The big bet would be on McKennie, but I’m going to go with a sneaky pick here. I think the Chicago Fire make a run for Weah next winter.

Max Arfsten could be destined for Europe this summer (Adam Cairns / Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY Network / Imagn Images)

Which USMNT players in MLS will head abroad either midseason or next winter?

BOGERT: Diego Luna

Luna drew interest from Spanish clubs Celta Vigo and Espanyol this winter, but the Real Salt Lake star should make his move across the Atlantic in the summer.

BUSHNELL: Max Arfsten

He told me in the fall, unequivocally: “I want to play in Europe.” I think he’ll get his move in the summer, post-World Cup.

CARDENAS: Matt Freese

The goalkeeper might become the most important player for the U.S., who will live or die with its play in net. If Freese, the presumed U.S. starter, has a good-to-great World Cup, he’ll get his shot in Europe.

TENORIO: Arfsten

The best chance for a player to make a move is Arfsten. I think Sebastian Berhalter will get a big new MLS contract that will price him out of Europe. I could also see Freese getting a look if he has a standout World Cup.

How many goal contributions (goals plus assists) will Messi have?

BOGERT: 50

The line has to be set at Carlos Vela’s 2019 record of 49, which Messi finished one shy of last year with his 29 goals and 19 assists (MLS officially counts secondary assists, it should be noted). Will he play enough minutes in a World Cup year to match or surpass that record?

BUSHNELL: 38

With absurd per-90 numbers, similar to each of the past two seasons. I just think he and Miami will be very cautious with his minutes, especially between now and the World Cup, and especially after he strained a left hamstring muscle in a preseason friendly.

CARDENAS: 37

I thought Messi would slow down a bit last season, and he simply took over the league after a stuttered start to the year. In 2026, he’ll prioritize his fitness for Argentina, which should limit his appearances for Miami. Messi will have no trouble scoring, though. And he may actually produce more assists with new No. 9 Germán Berterame ready to get to work. Let’s go with 20 goals and 17 assists.

TENORIO: 40

He’s averaging 1.6 goal contributions per game, so I’d say he sticks somewhat close to that rate and plays in around 25 games this season. So 40 goal contributions.

Thomas Müller and Son Heung-min will embark on their first full seasons in MLS (Darryl Dyck / The Canadian Press / AP)

What’s your goal contribution expectation for Son Heung-min and Thomas Müller in their first full seasons in MLS?

BOGERT: My expectation is higher for Son. He and Bouanga will be among the top challengers to Messi’s Golden Boot. It is also more likely that Son plays more minutes than Müller. Son had nine goals and three assists in 10 regular-season matches (806 minutes) last year. Expecting something north of 22 goals and 10 assists is not unreasonable, while we can book Müller for 18 goals and 12 assists.

BUSHNELL: Son might beat Messi to the Golden Boot. Müller will be part of the chasing pack — in part because Vancouver won’t be as reliant on him. Let’s go with 39 and 32, respectively.

CARDENAS: The Korean superstar is primed for a truly exceptional year in 2026. He had his first taste of MLS last season and seemed to relish the competition. He can mirror Messi’s goal numbers and will have a 20 goal, seven-assist season. Müller, too, will have a better grasp of the physical demands of MLS. I don’t think, however, that he was acquired by Vancouver to score goals. His value is more tactical and psychological. Put him down for 13 goals and nine assists.

TENORIO: I’ll go with 36 goal contributions for Son and 28 for Müller.

Will an MLS team win Concacaf Champions Cup, and if so, which one?

BOGERT: Inter Miami. It’s a boring pick, but the club has the most talent in MLS and has been public in its desire to lift that trophy.

BUSHNELL: Nope. But LAFC and/or Inter Miami will come close.

CARDENAS: Inter Miami has the team, and finally, more depth to compete internationally. In 2024 they were outmatched by a much deeper Monterrey side. This current Miami team was built with a regional trophy as its main objective.

TENORIO: Yes. I’m convinced that Inter Miami’s top target this year is Concachampions and I think that Messi & Co. will aim their fitness/quality at that competition first and foremost, so I’m picking them to get the continental title.

MLS MVP: Messi Three-Peat or the field?

BOGERT: Messi is the favorite, but, of course, it is not a foregone conclusion. His first MVP went to the final day for my vote, with Cucho Hernández a tight second on my ballot. Between Son, Evander, Anders Dreyer, Bouanga and more, he’ll have stiff competition. It comes down to minutes for Messi as well. I’ll go with the field but be boring and say Son.

BUSHNELL: The field. And from the field, Son would be my pick — or even Bouanga, if he stays at LAFC through the end of the season.

CARDENAS: Son will win his first MVP in 2026. He is the only player in this league who can match Messi for goals and eyeballs.

TENORIO: Both Son and Messi are going to play in the World Cup this summer. That opens up the opportunity for someone else to win the MVP. But … I think one of those two will win it. I’ll take the upset and bet on Son.