68 men’s college basketball predictions: Cinderella isn’t dead but she’s in danger

The men’s college basketball season tips off Monday night with 20 of the AP’s preseason Top 25 teams in action. To celebrate the start of the new season, here are 68 bold predictions that are sure to come true (unless they don’t).

1. Cinderella isn’t dead but she’s in danger. The disparity between high-majors and the rest of college basketball will continue to grow wider this season. Between soaring NIL payments and rule changes allowing unlimited transfers, talent has concentrated at the power-conference level as small-conference programs have increasingly become a farm system. In Evan Miyakawa’s preseason rankings for example, the conference strength drop from the Big East to the Atlantic 10 is larger than the gap between conferences No. 6 and No. 17.

Advertisement

2. That means this is another good year to submit a chalk-heavy bracket in your office NCAA tournament pool. Last year, for the first time since the NCAA tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1975, every Sweet 16 team hailed from a power conference. The odds don’t favor a repeat, but don’t count on a bunch of one-bid-league interlopers either.

3. ACC transfer who will make the biggest impact: Darrion Williams (Texas Tech to NC State)

4. Big East transfer who will make the biggest impact: Josh Dix (Iowa to Creighton)

5. Big Ten transfer who will make the biggest impact: Bennett Stirtz (Drake to Iowa)

Advertisement

6. Big 12 transfer who will make the biggest impact: PJ Haggerty (Memphis to Kansas State)

7. SEC transfer who will make the biggest impact: Boogie Fland (Arkansas to Florida)

8. Down transfer who will make the biggest impact: Aidan Mahaney (UConn to UC Santa Barbara)

9. Team outside the AP preseason Top 25 who could surprise: San Diego State. You’d think voters would be higher on the Aztecs considering they return eight players from an NCAA tournament team while adding three veteran transfers and a pair of promising freshmen. Not only is San Diego State the Mountain West’s best team, the Aztecs are a threat to make the NCAA tournament’s second weekend for a third time in four years.

Advertisement

10. Preseason Top 25 team who could disappoint: Creighton. The Bluejays must replace nearly 48 points per game after graduating their three leading scorers from last season. They also must find a way to function without the defensive presence of Ryan Kalkbrenner, whose ability to alter shots at the rim was the key to Creighton’s approach. Greg McDermott is a proven winner and he has brought in some intriguing newcomers, but living up to a preseason No. 23 ranking is a lot to ask given the roster turnover.

11. With celebrated freshman AJ Dybantsa, returning first-team All-Big-12 sharpshooter Richie Saunders and coveted Baylor transfer Robert Wright, this is BYU’s best chance yet to reach the program’s first Final Four. Deep-pocketed donors have splurged to raise BYU’s ceiling as a program. The NBA background of Kevin Young and his staff has also helped the Cougars attract top-tier talent.

12. Darryn Peterson will be the best freshman that Bill Self has ever coached — more polished and college-ready than Joel Embiid, more assertive and reliable than Andrew Wiggins. Peterson is a dynamic three-level scorer with the ideal physical measurements for a modern two guard. He’s the early favorite to go No. 1 in next year’s NBA draft.

Advertisement

13. With Peterson as the offensive engine, multiple proven perimeter stoppers and Flory Bidunga anchoring the paint, Kansas will finish way better than its preseason No. 19 ranking suggests. Hunter Dickinson-led Kansas teams underwhelmed as preseason No. 1 both of the past two seasons, but AP voters overcorrected this month by awarding the Jayhawks their lowest preseason ranking in 17 years.

14. The NCAA tournament expansion that no one asked for will be rammed down our throats. As Ross Dellenger of Yahoo Sports reported last month, executives are inching closer to an agreement to expand the NCAA tournament to 76 teams beginning in March 2027. The tournament would feature a 12-game opening round played at two sites.

15. Expect the beneficiary to be middling power-conference programs. They’re going to gobble up the majority of the eight extra at-large bids most years.

16. This will be the worst Maui Invitational field in years. There isn’t a single preseason AP Top 25 team. Many of the teams aren’t even projected to finish in the upper half of their leagues. The headliners are Texas and NC State, both of whom hired high-profile new coaches this past offseason. USC, Seton Hall, Arizona State, Washington State, Boise State and Chaminade round out the rest of the unremarkable field.

Advertisement

17. Sadly, this could be the start of Thanksgiving week tournaments like the Maui Invitational and the Battle 4 Atlantis fading from relevance. Top-tier programs are increasingly avoiding those events in favor of the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas, which grants each team that participates $1 million for NIL allocation. Kansas, Gonzaga, Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan and Houston are among the 18 teams in this year’s event.

18. Dan Hurley will break his promise to behave better on the sideline the first time an opposing fan mouths off at him, a controversial call goes against his team or a rival coach so much as looks at him wrong. Hurley can’t help it. Wearing his emotions on his sleeve at all times is part of what makes the UConn coach tick.

19. The talent level across college basketball this season will be the highest it has been in a long time. The skyrocketing NIL market has made playing top-tier college basketball more lucrative than playing in the G League or for overseas professional teams. Underclassmen returned to college in record numbers. Dozens of international prospects have also come stateside to play college basketball, some 21- or 22-year-olds with several years experience competing against professionals, others supremely gifted teenagers with NBA aspirations.

Advertisement

20. The debate that will percolate the next few months is whether players who have competed professionally should be eligible to play college basketball. College coaches aren’t just recruiting prospects who have competed in the EuroLeague or high-level domestic pro leagues. Last month, Santa Clara signed Thierry Darlan, a guard from the Central African Republic who had spent the previous two seasons in the G League.

21. Don’t expect the NCAA to step in and do anything about this. The organization issued a statement last week essentially saying it doesn’t think it can legally defend banning players with international or domestic professional experience from playing college basketball. “These cases are likely to continue,” the NCAA statement said, unless Congress intervenes, establishes the NCAA’s authority in setting operational rules and provides immunity from legal challenges.

22. Football schools that will have more success on the hardwood this season: Florida, Auburn

23. Basketball schools that will have more success on the gridiron this season: Indiana, Memphis

Advertisement

24. It used to be that newly hired coaches could count on administrators giving them at least four years to turn around struggling programs. Not anymore. The transfer portal has made it possible to revitalize a talent-bereft roster in a single offseason. As a result, more coaches will lose their jobs after just two or three seasons if they aren’t showing progress.

25. The high-profile coach under the most pressure this season is North Carolina’s Hubert Davis. In the last three years, he has missed one NCAA tournament and slipped into another as a No. 11 seed. North Carolina hired general manager Jim Tanner and assembled one of the most expensive rosters in college basketball. If the Tar Heels are still in bubble territory next March, the clamor to move on from Davis will be deafening.

26. Adrian Autry is also facing a prove-it-season after not coming close to taking Syracuse to the NCAA tournament since replacing Jim Boeheim two seasons ago. Syracuse had a good offseason, retaining JJ Starling and Donnie Freeman and adding talent via the high school ranks and the transfer portal. If Autry can’t get the Orange to the NCAA tournament in his third season, he shouldn’t count on getting a fourth.

Advertisement

27. Other coaches whose jobs will be in jeopardy if they don’t win this season: Bobby Hurley (Arizona State), Mike Young (Virginia Tech), Earl Grant (Boston College), Johnny Dawkins (UCF), Jake Diebler (Ohio State), Matt McMahon (LSU)

28. Will Wade at NC State will be great for the Wolfpack and even better for college basketball. Not only will he transform erratic NC State into a consistent winner again, he won’t be afraid to provoke the neighboring blue bloods and reenergize those longstanding rivalries.

29. Case in point, what Wade said this offseason after landing former North Carolina forward Ven-Allen Lubin: “The other school was too dumb to play him. When [Lubin] plays 28-plus minutes — he’s done that in 23 games — he averages 15 and 8. I don’t know why the hell they didn’t play him but we’re gonna play him, so he’s gonna average 15 and 8.”

30. There’s a reason LeBron James laughed at the idea of delaying retirement long enough to wait for his younger son to join him in the NBA. Arizona freshman Bryce James isn’t anywhere close to NBA-ready. James logged two minutes off the bench in an exhibition victory over Saint Mary’s earlier this month and 15 minutes in a 113-42 exhibition rout of Embry-Riddle last Monday. Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd has raised the possibility of redshirting the 18-year-old this season.

Advertisement

31. College basketball’s national freshman of the year race will be a three-way battle between the leading contenders to go No. 1 in next year’s NBA Draft: Peterson, Dybantsa and Duke’s Cameron Boozer. The big three is the big three for a reason. They’re in a tier of their own.

32. Freshmen besides the big three who will make the biggest impact this season: Nate Ament (Tennessee), Mikel Brown (Louisville), Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas)

33. Freshmen outside the Rivals top 25 who will make the biggest impact this season: Braylon Mullins (UConn), Kayden Mingo (Penn State), Kiyan Anthony (Syracuse)

34. The most expensive roster in college basketball will look like a bargain if Kentucky maintains its level of play from its impressive exhibition victory over Purdue last Friday. Playing without injured projected starters Jaland Lowe and Jayden Quaintance, the Wildcats cruised to a 78-65 victory over the preseason No. 1 Boilermakers. Kentucky is spending at least $22 million on its 2025-26 roster, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader. By comparison, Kentucky’s budget for John Calipari’s final season two years ago was less than $4 million.

35. The SEC won’t duplicate last season’s record 14 NCAA tournament bids, but 11 or 12 seems very plausible. Of the SEC’s 16 teams, only South Carolina is ranked lower than No. 58 in the preseason KenPom rankings. Only the Gamecocks appear to have a roster incapable of making the NCAA tournament. This will again be college basketball’s deepest league from top to bottom.

Advertisement

36. The top of the SEC won’t be as powerful. A year ago, the SEC produced six top-four seeds, with Florida and Auburn making the Final Four and the Gators cutting down the nets. This year, it would be a surprise if anyone besides Florida and Kentucky emerge as true title contenders. The top tier in the Big 12, for example, should be stronger.

37. Another legendary coach will retire earlier than expected. Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzewski, Jay Wright, Jim Boeheim, Tony Bennett, Jim Larrañaga and Bruce Pearl have each retired since 2021, in some cases citing burnout due to college basketball’s changing landscape. Players gaining the right to transfer as many times as they want without sitting out a year has made roster management more challenging and time-consuming. The loosening of NIL rules has also turned recruiting battles into bidding wars.

38. Exhibition loss that’s a sign of things to come: Dayton 78, Penn State 62. Penn State fans who are wallowing in the misery of a promising football season gone wrong aren’t going to get any relief once basketball season begins. While highly ranked freshman Kayden Mingo should be a bright spot, the Nittany Lions are likely to struggle and would have to exceed expectations just to make the Big Ten tournament.

39. Exhibition loss that’s more fluke than omen: Nebraska 90, BYU 89. Eighth-ranked BYU treated this like an NBA preseason game, sitting point guard Rob Wright in the second half and using end-of-the-bench lineup combinations during the final two minutes. There’s reason to be concerned about the Cougars defensively, but drawing sweeping conclusions from this result is foolish.

Advertisement

40. ACC breakout star: Isaiah Evans, G, Duke

41. Big East breakout star: Tarris Reed, F, UConn

42. Big Ten breakout star: Jeremy Fears, G, Michigan State

43. Big 12 breakout star: Christian Anderson, G, Texas Tech

44. SEC breakout star: Labaron Philon, G, Alabama

45. Mid-major breakout star: Mikey Lewis, Saint Mary’s

46. The $3 million that UCLA is paying Donovan Dent will be money well spent. The coveted New Mexico transfer will be the missing piece for a Bruins team that desperately needed an explosive playmaker. Dent is a heat-seeking missile in the open floor who can finish through contact or draw double teams and set up open shooters.

Advertisement

47. Reigning national champion Florida will enter the 2026 NCAA tournament among the half-dozen biggest threats to win it all again. The Gators return every key frontcourt player from last season and restocked their backcourt via the transfer portal. If Thomas Haugh can successfully transition to playing on the wing and guards Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee can provide playmaking and scoring punch, the Gators will be a contender again in the SEC and nationally.

48. Coach who will be in the most demand next spring: Jerrod Calhoun, Utah State. Calhoun was a West Virginia target last spring after leading Utah State to a 26-8 record and an NCAA tournament berth. He’ll be a hot name again after this season if he can keep the Aggies near the top of the Mountain West and in NCAA tournament contention.

49. Other coaches in position to move up: Eric Olen (New Mexico), Matt Langel (Colgate), Mitch Henderson (Princeton), Joe Gallo (Merrimack), Takayo Siddle (UNC-Wilmington), Josh Schertz (Saint Louis), Drew Valentine (Loyola Chicago)

50. The fatal flaw that some of last year’s most disappointing teams had in common was the presence of a low-volume-shooting point guard and a non-shooting center. Offenses with multiple non-shooters struggled with spacing and were easier to defend. Which teams could fall victim to this trend this year? Michigan and Michigan State both appear susceptible.

51. Braden Smith has already gone from 190th in his high school class to first-team All-American at Purdue. Now look for him to make NBA decision makers feel foolish for not inviting him to the 2025 Draft Combine. Whether Smith gets drafted next June, the Purdue point guard will earn an NBA contract and establish himself as a rotation player. Smith is generously listed at 6 feet, 170 pounds, but concerns about his measurables overlook the unselfishness, vision and hunger that will translate at the NBA level.

Advertisement

52. Team that will make the biggest leap this season: Washington, which will go from last in the Big Ten to making the NCAA tournament. Washington signed Hannes Steinbach, a 6-foot-8 forward who averaged 17.4 points and 13.0 rebounds while leading Germany to a runner-up finish at the U-19 World Cup this past summer. The Huskies will support him with a deep, talented backcourt. If that’s the 11th-best team in the Big Ten, as posited by the annual Big Ten media poll, that league will be a monster.

53. Team that will fall the farthest this season: Maryland, which may succeed eventually under Buzz Williams but will likely experience some initial growing pains. No key players return from last year’s 27-win Sweet 16 team. By getting Solomon Washington and Pharrel Payne to follow him from Texas A&M, Williams has rebounders, but Maryland lacks perimeter shooting. This is a total reset.

54. Mid-major who could be dangerous in March: UNC Wilmington. This year’s Seahawks could be more talented than the team that won 27 games and put a scare into Texas Tech in the opening round of last year’s NCAA tournament. Head coach Takayo Siddle reloaded through the transfer portal, adding key players from Colonial Athletic Association rivals Stony Brook, Towson and Monmouth.

55. Champions Classic predictions: Kentucky over Michigan State, Kansas over Duke

Advertisement

56. One of Gonzaga’s biggest victories of the season happened Monday at a Spokane County Courthouse when a judge granted Tyon Grant-Foster the right to play for the Zags this season. The 25-year-old transfer from Grand Canyon will be one of Gonzaga’s leading scorers and will help the Zags easily outpace their preseason No. 21 ranking.

57. The two best non-power-conference teams in college basketball this season will be the Zags and San Diego State. Then there’s a steep dropoff to the likes of Saint Mary’s, Memphis, Utah State, Dayton and VCU.

58. UConn will look like UConn again this season. Between improved point guard play from Silas Demary and Malachi Smith, an array of skilled outside shooters and elite offensive rebounding from Tarris Reed Jr., UConn should be formidable offensively. The question is how big a step forward the Huskies can take from 75th in the country last season defensively.

59. Steven Pearl will have the most immediate success of any newly hired head coach. All five starters from Auburn’s Final Four team may be gone, but Bruce Pearl did not leave the cupboard bare for his son. Steven inherits a potential All-American candidate in sophomore point guard Tahaad Pettiford and an array of promising transfers, including efficient big man KeShawn Murphy (Mississippi State) and high-scoring wing Keyshawn Hall (UCF).

Advertisement

60. The new coaching hires who will have the most success longterm: Wade, Olen and Iowa’s Ben McCollum.

61. Houston’s JoJo Tugler will be the most impactful defensive player in the sport — again. The 6-foot-8, 230-pound big man moves fluidly and boasts an eye-popping 7-6 wingspan, enabling him to switch 1-through-5 on the perimeter yet recover to protect the rim at an exceptional level.

62. Decision to stay in school that will look smart: Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan. The 6-foot-9 forward was ultra-productive last season at UAB, averaging 18 points, 11 rebounds and four assists. He might have been a late first-round pick had he stayed in the 2025 draft, but the financial package offered by Michigan was too enticing. Now he has a chance to consolidate his first-round status while playing a role similar to Danny Wolf’s this past season.

Advertisement

63. Players whose names will receive the most attention during TV broadcasts next season: Vanderbilt forward Chandler Bing and UT Rio Grande Valley guard Always Wright

64. Purdue’s offense will be among college basketball’s best again this season, but a lack of elite athleticism on defense will be the preseason No. 1 Boilermakers’ undoing at some point during the NCAA tournament. Can Purdue find a perimeter stopper? Is Oscar Cluff, Daniel Jacobsen or Trey Kaufman-Renn mobile enough to defend in space? The fear here is that the Boilermakers aren’t built to force turnovers or to play anything besides drop coverage. That’s a hard way to win six straight in March.

65. A head coach who has never won a national championship before will stand atop a Werner ladder in Indianapolis next April with a net around his neck. This is a relatively safe prediction considering only seven active coaches have ever won a title: Florida’s Todd Golden, UConn’s Dan Hurley, Kansas’ Bill Self, Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, Baylor’s Scott Drew, Arkansas’ John Calipari and St. John’s Rick Pitino.

66. Early Final Four prediction: Houston, Duke, Florida, Kentucky

Advertisement

67. Early national champion prediction: Houston

68. Most of these preseason predictions will probably be wrong. The most fun part of college basketball is that it always defies expectations.