World Cup odds continue generating monster amounts of action, at sportsbooks and on prediction markets. Everyone wants a piece of the giant soccer pie.
Among the more interesting plays that popped up in the past week is a 10-leg parlay made on Super Bowl Sunday that finally cashed out Saturday night, as the group stage ended.
Read on for more on that wager, along with a six-figure weekend winner, and a prediction-market pile of six- and seven-figure plays from people with insane amounts of disposable income.
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Parlay Partay Part I
Way back on Feb. 8, a FanDuel Sportsbook customer thought, why not combine a Super Bowl player prop with some men’s tennis, Olympic hockey and curling, college basketball and the NHL?
At that point, the bettor then figured, why not throw in some World Cup group winners, as well?
And so was born a $500, 10-leg parlay that wouldn’t settle up for more than four-and-a-half months. But settle it did.
Once the Avalanche reached the Western Conference finals on May 13, a six-week wait began to determine the final four legs: Brazil to win Group C, Germany to win Group E, Spain to win Group H and Argentina to win Group J
All four did so. At odds of +5944 — just beyond 59/1 — that $500 bet netted $29,722 profit ($30,222 total payout).
Parlays Giveth, Parlays Taketh Away
It’s worth pointing out that it’s often futile to just get three- or four-leg parlays to the finish line, never-mind a 10-leg lottery ticket.
Seventeen legs? Damn near impossible.
A Fanatics Sportsbook customer almost got there, though.
And again, the wager was a multiple-sports combo, opening with NBA Finals and UFC 250 markets, and closing with all 12 World Cup group winners.
The wager: $100 at hefty odds of +25833, or almost 259/1. Then the bettor utilized a 100% profit-boost promotion, hiking the odds to a huge +51667, almost 517/1.
England won Group L to get this bettor to 16 successful legs. All that remained for a $51,777 payday: Portugal to beat Colombia on Saturday night, in the last Group K match.
Alas, Portugal and Colombia played to a 0-0 draw, and Colombia won the group.
At Fanatics Sportsbook, a bettor came up just short on what would’ve been a massive winner. The customer, who goes by @JDGoldboys on X, put $500 on a parlay involving four of the tournament’s best scorers, in matches last Monday and Tuesday.
The four legs: Argentina’s Lionel Messi, France’s Kylian Mbappé, Norway’s Erling Haaland and England’s Harry Kane to each score two or more goals. Messi, Mbappé and Haaland did so, and it all came down to Kane in Tuesday’s match vs. Ghana.
The bettor could’ve cashed out at that point for more than $121,000. He opted to let that ticket ride, taking a shot at nearly $800,000.
Stunningly, not only did Kane not score, but England didn’t net a single goal in a 0-0 draw.
On the bright side, the bettor noted on X that he’d done some hedging and still came away with winnings of $80,000-plus.
Prediction Market Mania
Social media is overloaded with big-money trades on the World Cup. Not a day has gone by without Kalshi or Polymarket noting multiple six- and sometimes seven-figure positions.
That led to plenty of sweats, with some big winners and losers.
In Sunday’s opening match of the knockout stage, Polymarket saw a $1.2 million trade on Canada to beat South Africa. And to clarify, a tie doesn’t result in a push on that trade; rather, it’s a loser.
So when the match got to 90 minutes, and second-half injury time was in play, the trader had to be profusely sweating.
Two minutes later, the fever broke. Stephen Eustaquio scored, and Canada went on to a 1-0 victory.
At a price of 53% — which correlates to odds of approximately -113 — the trader’s profit was just shy of $1.085 million (total payout $2.308 million).
The list of massive money trades on prediction markets is far too long to note every one. But a few more notable transactions:
- $2.6 million on Norway not to win vs. Senegal (Polymarket). Norway won 2-1. That’s a massively expensive loser.
- $2 million on France to beat Iraq by three or more goals (Polymarket). The French won 3-0. At a price of 58% (-138), the trader profited $1.448 million (total payout $3.448 million).
- $1.8 million on Spain to not win vs. Uruguay (Polymarket). The customer was rooting for a draw or a Spain loss, and did not get it. Spain won 1-0, and that $1.8 million evaporated.
- $1.9 million on Egypt -1.5 goals vs. New Zealand (Polymarket). Egypt got there with a 3-1 win at a price of 66%, and the trader cleared $979,557 profit (total payout $2.898 million).
- $1.15 million on Croatia to beat Ghana (Polymarket). Croatia won 2-1, and at a price of 53% (-113), the trader profited $1.018 million (total payout $2.167 million).
- $162,500 on Brazil not to advance vs. Japan, in a Monday knockout match (Kalshi). At 26% (+285), the trader was looking to bag $462,500. But Brazil scored late in second-half injury time to win 2-1.
Fiesta Parlay, Parte II
Un cliente de Hard Rock Bet apostó $500 en un parlay de cinco partidos de jueves a viernes, y el apostante se vio atraído principalmente por el empate, empatando en cuatro de esos partidos.
Llegaron los cuatro puntos muertos, al igual que el Upset Special. Ecuador necesitaba vencer a Alemania para poder avanzar a los octavos de final.
Con gol de Gonzalo Plata en el minuto 77, Ecuador logró la victoria por 2-1. También fue una gran victoria para el apostante.
Con una cuota de +22113 (aproximadamente 221/1), los $500 del apostador se convirtieron en $111.063,55.
No están mal dos días de trabajo.
Esperamos que lo hayas tenido
No es necesario apostar cuatro, cinco o seis cifras para conseguir una buena ganancia. Para todos nosotros, los normales, simplemente conseguir 10 dólares de descuento en, digamos, 10/1 o 15/1 es un gran día.
Y 45/1 es mucho mejor aún.
En DraftKings Sportsbook, Auston Trusty anotó +4500 para marcar el primer gol en el partido entre Estados Unidos y Türkiye el jueves. Poco más de dos minutos después, Trusty cumplió y dio a los estadounidenses una ventaja de 1-0.
Desafortunadamente, Estados Unidos sufrió una derrota por 3-2. Pero si obtuviste diez dólares de anticipo en Trusty, entonces te embolsaste una ganancia de $450.
Lo harías incluso mejor si hicieras la misma apuesta por el japonés Kaishu Sano, en el partido de octavos de final del lunes contra el poderoso Brasil. Sanó tuvo +5000 para ser el primer goleador y +2000 para marcar en cualquier momento.
Marcó el gol para darle a Japón una ventaja de 1-0 en el minuto 29. Esa ventaja finalmente no se mantuvo en la impresionante victoria de Brasil por 2-1.
Pero si le arrojabas un billete de diez dólares a Sano, obtenías una ganancia neta de 500 dólares. Incluso $10 en una meta en cualquier momento aseguraron $200.
Y si pones $10 en Stephen Eustaquio, obtendrás una victoria de última hora en el partido eliminatorio entre Canadá y Sudáfrica del domingo.
Eustaquio anotó en el minuto 92, asegurando la victoria por 1-0. Con probabilidades de +2500 para ser el primer goleador, una apuesta de $10 generó una ganancia de $250.
Me gustan las grandes apuestas y no puedo mentir
Hay innumerables transacciones más notables sobre las probabilidades de la Copa del Mundo. Eso incluye una apuesta de «apuesta mucho para ganar un poco» en Hard Rock Bet.
De cara a su último partido del Grupo K contra el Congo, Uzbekistán tenía prácticamente cero posibilidades de avanzar a la fase eliminatoria y ya había sufrido dos derrotas. Incluso una victoria el sábado habría requerido una improbable solución de desempates.
Las probabilidades reflejaron eso, con el puntal Sí/No para avanzar teniendo al No como un gran favorito de -200000. Eso significaba que haría falta una apuesta de 2.000 dólares para ganar… un dólar.
Pero un apostador de Hard Rock decidió apostar 31.807,81 dólares al No.
Uzbekistán perdió 3-1 y se fue a casa, y el apostante obtuvo una ganancia total de $15,90 (pago total de $31.823,71).
Otras apuestas destacadas de mayor tamaño:
- $500,000 Portugal moneyline -750 vs. Uzbekistan (Hard Rock). Big favorite Portugal rolled 5-0, and the bettor collected $66,666.67 profit (total payout $566.666.67).
- $440,000 Egypt moneyline +157 vs. Iran (William Hill US). This was actually two separate wagers of $220,000 apiece. Not that such a distinction mattered. Egypt played to a 1-1 draw, and the bettor made a huge donation to the house.
- $220,000 Japan moneyline -235 vs. Tunisia (Caesars Sports). Japan rolled 4-0, and the bettor profited $93,617 (total payout $313,617).
Sin embargo, por segunda semana consecutiva, terminaremos con un jugador de golf que hace millonarios, una vez más en DraftKings Sportsbook.
Antes del Travelers Championship, un apostador apostó $77.000 a Viktor Hovland +5200 para ganar. El torneo se extendió hasta un desempate el lunes entre Hovland y el No. 1 del mundo Scottie Scheffler.
Hovland hizo un putt para birdie de 7 pies en el primer hoyo de desempate, luego vio a Scheffler fallar un tiro de 4 pies.
Así que el cliente obtuvo una monstruosa ganancia de 4.004 millones de dólares (pago total de 4.081 millones de dólares).
Esa apuesta y muchas otras enumeradas anteriormente ofrecen una buena oportunidad para recordar: estos grandes apostadores/apostadores de alto patrimonio neto generalmente tienen los medios para absorber grandes pérdidas.
¿Tú y yo? No tanto. Nunca apuestes más de lo que puedes permitirte perder.
