What happened to the Lions? Where did these Jaguars come from? Our experts’ Week 16 takeaways

Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.

Week 16 had already provided two of the best games of the NFL season: the Seattle Seahawks’ walk-off overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday, and the Chicago Bears’ walk-off overtime win over the Green Bay Packers on Saturday. It would be hard for Sunday to compare in drama, but it came close. The Detroit Lions nearly rallied from a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, but two offensive pass interference calls wiped out two would-be go-ahead touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s win just about extinguished Detroit’s playoff chances.

That wasn’t all. The Jacksonville Jaguars went into Denver and beat the AFC-leading Broncos by two touchdowns, and the Carolina Panthers upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take sole possession of first place in the NFC South.

NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on a Week 16 filled with fireworks and fantastic finishes.

Last season, the Lions were 15-2 and the top seed in the NFC. After a wild home loss to the Steelers on Sunday, they’re 8-7 and clinging to the faintest postseason hopes. What happened?

Jones: It was a little bit of everything. Ben Johnson leaving for the Bears robbed the Lions offense of their wizardly play caller. Aaron Glenn leaving for the New York Jets left Detroit without its defensive mastermind. Injuries and retirement weakened the offense, and additional injuries at other key spots (tight end Sam LaPorta and safety Brian Branch to name a few) also hurt. The Lions just never managed to overcome all of that.

Pompei: It’s always a mistake to assume a team will be the same from season to season, but it’s a mistake we all make pretty much with every team every year. Replacing Johnson was more difficult for the Lions than most suspected it would be. The retirement of center Frank Ragnow was crippling, too. Their offense was not the same. The 2025 Lions have had a string of bad luck that the 2024 Lions did not. They’ve had injuries in numbers. In addition to LaPorta and Branch, some players whose absences have been felt are cornerback Terrion Arnold, safety Kerby Joseph and defensive lineman Levi Onwuzurike.

Nguyen: A brain drain of epic proportions happened, in which the Lions lost both coordinators and multiple assistant coaches. We see the impact that Johnson is having on the division-leading Bears, discussed below. It stinks when you lose a great coach but it’s even worse when he instantly turns a division rival into a playoff team. His replacement, John Morton, lost play calling duties, making that hire unsuccessful. Then they lost Ragnow, an All-Pro center, to retirement. He tried to come back this season, but that didn’t work out. There was also the wave of defensive injuries. When you have to win shootouts and your offense isn’t as elite as in previous seasons, games become a crapshoot, and things haven’t broken the Lions’ way.

What kind of statement did the Jaguars (11-4) make by going into Denver and beating the league’s only two-loss team by two touchdowns?

Nguyen: A huge statement that puts Jaguars coach Liam Coen into the elite play caller tier, if you didn’t already have him there. To put up 34 points against that Broncos defense on the road was enormous. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was stacking up good performances, but they were against bad defenses. It’ll be hard to ignore Lawrence’s development after a four-touchdown performance against one of the best defenses in the league. Defensively, the Jaguars are good enough and can cause enough havoc to win games in the postseason.

This was a decisive double-digit win, too. With two manageable games left against the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, the AFC South is theirs for the taking. This team is playing with a ton of confidence. They have talent and excellent coaching on both sides of the ball.

Pompei: All season long, we have expected the Jaguars to crash. But they have won six in a row, the second-longest streak in the NFL. And what’s most impressive is they have won their last four by an average of 20 points. The Jaguars are a very confident team with a hot quarterback, which usually plays very well in January. At the moment, they may have the best offense in the NFL. And their opportunistic defense, with 28 takeaways, isn’t bad either. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a Super Bowl contender.

Jones: They put the AFC on notice and showed that they are one the most well-rounded teams in the league. The Jaguars boast an offense capable of hanging 30 points on one of the best defenses in the league, and they also have a defense that’s as disruptive as they come. Lawrence has faced a lot of scrutiny, but he continues to ascend and delivered a truly impressive performance, passing for 279 yards and three touchdowns (his fifth straight multi-touchdown game and seventh of the season) and adding 20 rushing yards and a touchdown. Most importantly, he took care of the football.

Defensively, Jacksonville really made things difficult for Bo Nix, who completed just 28 of 47 passes, and the Jags forced two more turnovers to notch their ninth-multi-takeaway game of the season. Coen’s team also showed it can win in a variety of ways. We’ve seen them attack teams with a run-heavy game plan, and we’ve seen them air it out. We’ve also seen them lean heavily on their defense when their offense isn’t quite humming. The AFC truly is wide open.

The Chargers have now won seven of eight and are a near lock to make the postseason. Are they the most overlooked contender, or does their weakness on the offensive line make them a deserved afterthought?

Jones: I do think we tend to overlook the Chargers because they’ve dealt with so many injuries along their offensive line, and are just middle of the road in most major offensive statistical categories. But it’d be silly for any opponent to fail to take the Chargers seriously. Their offense may be average from a scoring, passing and rushing standpoint. But their defense is really freakin’ good and continues to keep their team in games, giving Justin Herbert and Co. opportunities again and again. The Chargers have wins against the Broncos, Steelers and Eagles — all in the current playoff picture — and they delivered the knockout punch to the Kansas City Chiefs. And so, they have my attention. They definitely belong in the conversation.

Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers celebrate a touchdown during their win over the Dallas Cowboys. (Stacy Revere / Getty Images)

Pompei: The Chargers’ offensive line must be classified a concern, but so far, it hasn’t limited them as much as it probably should have. They have run the ball effectively without a running back who strikes fear in defenses. And while they have allowed too many sacks — 51 in 15 games — they have beaten some of the best pass rushing teams in the NFL, including the Broncos, Steelers and Eagles. We will get a better feel for whether the offensive line will be a postseason liability in the next two games, as the Chargers finish with the Texans and Broncos, both of whom can make the pocket seem hot as Hades for Herbert.

Nguyen: The Chargers have an elite quarterback, some nice weapons and a very well-coached defense. Yes, Herbert is elite, and I’ve argued he should be in the MVP conversation because there just are less than a handful of people in the world who could function behind this offensive line. However, in the playoffs, against a good defensive line, I’m not sure how this team can move the ball effectively. It would take a Herculean effort from Herbert, which he would be capable of, but it’s not something you should expect. Their best chance is still if their defense plays light-out. Though they have some good players, there aren’t many blue chippers. Their success is because of coaching and an overall team effort. They have the ingredients to upset a good team in the playoffs, but they also could get rolled on the wrong day, similarly to last season, when they were blown out by the Texans.

The Panthers were regularly getting blown out at the start of this season. Now they’re in position to win the NFC South after beating Tampa Bay 23-20 on Sunday. How do you explain this turnaround?

Nguyen: The Panthers (8-7) have been the NFL’s most up-and-down team this season. They are hard to figure out, and it all starts with quarterback Bryce Young. He’s had some high peaks but he’s also thrown for more than 200 yards only three times this season. Teams have done a good job of caging him in the pocket and he’s struggled to make plays. When he can escape the pocket or has space to step up, that’s when you see some of his big-play ability, but those opportunities have been few and far between. Defensively, the Panthers seem to have improved, so I don’t think they’re at risk of getting blown out like they were in the beginning of the season, but the offense still needs to find some consistency.

Tetairoa McMillan, Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers are in sole possession of first place in the NFC South after knocking off the Buccaneers. (David Jensen / Getty Images)

Jones: Carolina is a young team that has had to learn how to win games. They certainly took their lumps early on, and that first half of the season felt like a roller coaster — the Panthers stumbled to an 0-2 start out of the gates, blew out the Atlanta Falcons 30-0, got spanked 42-13 by the New England Patriots, then ripped off three straight wins before the Buffalo Bills destroyed them 40-9. It’s been a true seesaw season. But Dave Canales’ squad is scrappy. Young has displayed steady growth both from an execution and confidence standpoint while supported by an improved offensive line and impactful rushing attack. Young defensive players are growing into their roles and can really bring pressure on the quarterback. They’re still struggling with consistency, but the Panthers are taking strides forward, little by little, and all of those gradual steps forward have them a game ahead of the Bucs and in a great position with just two weeks left in the season.

Pompei: The Panthers are a resilient, tough, well-coached team with a developing quarterback who continues to show signs of growth. It’s tempting to dismiss them because they aren’t as talented as some, but they just won as big a game as any team can play, and they also beat the Rams three weeks ago and have a victory on the books against the Packers. Of course, they also lost to the New Orleans Saints twice. It will probably all come down to their final regular-season game in Tampa. And you know they will need to play at a higher level than they did Sunday to beat the Bucs and win the NFC South.

The Eagles clinched the NFC East title on Saturday, and the Bears are in the playoffs after that walk-off win over the Packers, but these teams have very different vibes. Which is the more dangerous potential postseason opponent?

Pompei: It should be the Eagles. They are the defending champions and have considerably more talent. But what they don’t have is momentum, and it’s highly unusual that a team does well in the postseason without a healthy running start. The Eagles are coming off two wins against so-so opponents but haven’t had an impressive win in six weeks. And among their losses in that stretch was one to the Bears on Black Friday. Maybe Philadelphia can create some momentum with a win over the Bills and then another over the Washington Commanders to close out the regular season. It’s true the Bears have lived a charmed season, and their luck may fizzle soon. They are not a great team. But they just keep answering challenges they aren’t supposed to answer, and at some point, deserve some benefit of the doubt.

Nguyen: It’s the Eagles by a mile, in my opinion. I’ve enjoyed watching the Bears’ improvement and Caleb Williams’ development this season under Ben Johnson, but this is a team that’s ahead of schedule and has won several games that were decided by the bounce of the ball. Saturday night, they won thanks to an onside kick recovery, which has become nearly impossible to do under the current rules. Regardless of what happens with the Bears, they are on the right track for long-term success. The Eagles, though, are the defending Super Bowl champions and have nearly all of their stars healthy. The defense is playing at an elite level, and the offense seems to be figuring some things out. The offense may not be as good as last season, but it is good enough to complement the defense and win games.

Jones: I know that the Eagles have felt disjointed and borderline dysfunctional this season, but I still can’t bring myself to bet against them. Their offensive line may not be the same dominant force that it was last season, and their passing attack does fluctuate between explosive and anemic. But Philadelphia still has the pieces on both sides of the ball and the experience necessary for another deep playoff run. The Eagles will be getting two very important pieces — right tackle Lane Johnson and defensive lineman Jalen Carter — back just in time for the playoffs, which should provide a needed boost on both sides of the ball. As far as the Bears go, their growth and resilience is certainly impressive. They’ve proven they can hang with anybody out. However, I wonder how a lack of postseason experience will affect them. It’s a whole ‘nother level of intensity, and we’ve seen plenty of times that young teams find themselves overwhelmed once they reach the postseason.

The two-win Titans, in desperate need of more talent, cost themselves draft position by upsetting the Chiefs. Are you surprised more overt tanking hasn’t caught on in the NFL?

Pompei: No sports league is more about competition than the NFL. Every game, every play is a fight for survival. Almost every coach and player in the league is obsessed with winning in every way possible. The idea of tanking — a concerted effort to lose — wouldn’t fly with probably 99 percent of teams in NFL history. There may be some outliers, but any team willing to tank to acquire one player probably needs 53 and a new coaching staff. A player or coach who gives a half-hearted effort probably will raise questions about his commitment and character and open a door for his exit from the NFL, or at least diminish his value.

Jones: I know that fans of basement dwellers would prefer their teams tank to increase their chances of landing the top pick of the draft like we see in the NBA, but there are just way too many variables at play in the NFL that make tanking unappealing in most cases. Unlike the NBA, very few NFL players are on fully guaranteed contracts. They have incentives to meet and impressions to make for upcoming free agency negotiations. The same applies for coaches. In Tennessee’s case, they have an interim head coach in Mike McCoy, who is doing everything he can to showcase his capabilities to ownership and management in Tennessee (and other franchises) in hopes of securing a full-time job. And young players like Cam Ward are trying to give themselves a strong foundation to build on for next season. Those are just some of the reasons why we don’t see teams embracing the idea of tanking.

Nguyen: This is a game in which you have to give close to everything you have to survive and not leave your teammates out to dry. I think at the end of the year, maybe some injured players don’t push to play like they would if their teams were in contention. And for the Titans, every rep matters for the development of Ward, the 2025 No. 1 overall pick. The experience of playing against a Steve Spagnuolo-coached defense is invaluable. Also, coaches and players have such a small window to prove themselves for their current teams or their next teams, and they don’t want to put bad tape on their resumes.