Everyone knows the NHL’s playoff format is unjust; the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild aren’t the first teams to be screwed by the format and certainly won’t be the last. Still, this series feels like a new low for Gary Bettman’s NHL.

Minnesota earned significantly more points than the fourth-best team in the West and will be rewarded for that incredible regular season with a matchup against the second-best team in the West.

Unjust doesn’t even begin to describe it. A great team is going home early after what should be a very tight series. And it could be either one.

The odds

The odds don’t reflect it, but the narrative between these two franchises could not be more different.

On paper, this should be an extremely tight series — partly due to the uncertainty around Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen — but it’s impossible to ignore each team’s postseason track record. The Wild have lost eight straight opening-round series. The Stars have been to three straight conference finals. It’s a coin flip, but even without Hintz, it’s hard to ignore the narrative that this series leans toward Dallas.

That’s unfortunate for the Wild, as they would be favored over every other team in the West aside from Colorado. Losing this first-round series wouldn’t be the same as past losses, given the opponent, but that wouldn’t make it sting any less.

The goal, though, isn’t winning one round. It’s going all the way. After acquiring Quinn Hughes, the Wild have pushed themselves closer to that goal. Now it’s time to prove this team is actually different.

The numbers

The Wild and Stars share a common thread: strength on the back end. Stingy defense has been a hallmark in Minnesota, and this season is no different — especially since the Olympic break. The Wild’s expected-goal (xG) suppression is third-best in the league since then, at a rate of 2.41 per 60 minutes at five-on-five (all numbers through Monday). The difference is that Dallas has had steadier goaltending to back that up down the stretch, allowing just 1.96 goals against per 60.

The Stars have the season-wide edge in short-handed situations, too. But Minnesota, despite giving up a lot of shots against, has tightened up to limit the danger of those chances since the Olympics.

The real separation between these two teams is a plus-15 gap in Offensive Rating, thanks to the Stars’ layers of scoring depth and finishing talent.

Minnesota has created a pretty balanced attack offensively. The Stars, on the other hand, haven’t been nearly as dangerous off the rush, with fewer scoring chances and goals in transition, which was a key part of last season’s strategy. But generally speaking, at five-on-five, the Stars have converted on more of their chances, and that could be the difference. As much as the Wild have upped their xG rate since the Olympics, it hasn’t translated enough on the scoresheet.

The power play, at least, has picked up the pace as of late in Minnesota. But the Stars have the full-season edge, with 10.6 goals per 60, which ranks second in the league.

The big question

Can Quinn Hughes elevate the Wild past the first round?

There’s nothing wrong with treating a team’s record as the ultimate arbiter of its quality. Good teams tend to have good records. Bad teams tend to have bad records. The better a team is, the better its record will be. Decent rules of thumb.

Most rules, however, have exceptions. And with that, we present the case of Quinn Hughes. When the Wild acquired him on Dec. 13, they were 17-9-5. Over a full season, that’s a 103-point pace. Not bad. Since he joined the lineup on Dec. 14, they’ve played at a 102-point pace. Also, not bad. More importantly, it’s proof that not all 103(ish)-point teams are created equal, because there is not a rational hockey fan walking the Earth who would say that the Wild of today are about as good as the Wild of December. Hughes has changed nearly everything.

The Wild’s early-season record was floated primarily by their goaltenders. In 12 pre-Hughes appearances, Jesper Wallstedt put up a .937 save percentage, saved nearly 13 goals more than expected, shut out four opponents and went 9-1-1. Filip Gustavsson, in 20 appearances, was solidly above average, as well. Those two helped wallpaper over intensely mediocre offensive numbers at five-on-five. Minnesota was 14th in xG for per 60 (2.69) and 31st in actual goals per 60 (2.07). Average process and poor results aren’t a ticket to anywhere fun.

Wild general manager Bill Guerin recognized that, so he swung a blockbuster trade for an ultra-high-end player. Simple enough. And in the months since, Hughes has been as advertised: An offensive engine on the back end, capable of connecting effectively with Minnesota’s elite forwards and mitigating a lack of down-roster game-breakers.

That manifested at five-on-five. Post-Hughes, the Wild are seventh in expected goals for per 60 at five-on-five (2.98) and 10th in actual goals per 60 (2.80). It also manifested in the power play, where the Wild (again) went from middling or worse to a top-five unit in goals, real and expected.

Hughes also gives the Wild’s blue line its alpha dog. Brock Faber is a valuable, effective player (and, somehow, is still just 23). He is not, though, the kind of No. 1 you see on a true contender — and with Hughes, he doesn’t have to be. As “the other guy” on Minnesota’s top pair, Faber is free to focus on his defensive work and play without the puck. Let the wizard do wizard things. When they’re on the ice together, Minnesota decisively controls the run of play and produces much more offense (3.94 goals per 60 versus 2.33) than with Faber and Jonas Brodin as the top pair.

That was the regular season, and the Wild know all too well that things change once late April hits. There’s also the matter of Hughes’ own mediocre playoffs back in 2024, when he had four even-strength points in 13 games and Vancouver failed to win his minutes. Minnesota, clearly, is banking on a major improvement from that, as they should. The Wild’s franchise defenseman has made them into a team befitting of their point total. Now, we’ll see if he can help make them something more.

The X-factor

Is Nils Lundkvist playoff-ready?

Just like their opponents, the Stars have a longstanding postseason bugaboo: a question mark in their top four. This time around, Nils Lundkvist seems like the player most capable of providing an answer.

That fact alone already represents a change, given that Lundkvist logged just 53 minutes during Dallas’ run to the 2024 Western Conference final and zero during its run to the 2025 West final, when he was out with a shoulder injury.

This season, behind Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, Lundkvist showed real growth and played alongside Thomas Harley for Harley’s most effective minutes (61 percent actual goal share, 53 percent xG share). That’s good, period, and miles ahead of what Harley has managed with Ilya Lyubushkin. In about 258 minutes with those two on the ice, Dallas was outscored 11-4. The second number was the primary problem. Tyler Myers, meanwhile, is at least a top-four option, but the Stars haven’t used him much in that capacity.

That means it’s likely on Lundkvist to continue providing solid defensive play, allowing Harley to focus more on contributing in other phases and generally showing he’s not just worthy of a regular spot in the playoff lineup but able to make a difference.

The rosters

Dallas’ depth allows it to attack in waves. How deep that goes all depends on two injured core players: Heiskanen and Hintz.

Heiskanen may not take over games like Hughes, but his complete all-situations dominance is a stabilizing force. If it weren’t such a uniquely deep field, Heiskanen would probably be on a lot of Norris Trophy shortlists with a plus-14.6 Net Rating — top 15 among defensemen this year.

While Dallas has experience navigating playoff hockey without him, the team is hoping for a Game 1 return this time around. And, per The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, general manager Jim Nill is expecting he’ll be back.

If Heiskanen were out, it’d be up to Lindell and Harley to drive the top four.

If there were an award for the best shutdown defenseman in the league, Lindell would be right in the thick of the race thanks to his quietly effective game. He is a mainstay alongside Heiskanen on a pair that has earned a 55.5 percent xG rate and a 48-34 edge in scoring against top competition. To Lindell’s credit, he has held his own pretty well in 400 minutes away from Heiskanen: a 52 percent xG rate and plus-10 goal differential.

Harley’s been more of a wild card. He’s one of the more active puck retrievers and movers in Dallas, but his breakouts have come with more risk this season. While he hasn’t matched the bar set last season, his two-way game has ticked up somewhat since the Olympic break.

Up front, the Hintz injury could put a crimp in the Stars’ top forward pairings: Mikko Rantanen-Wyatt Johnston, and Jason Robertson-Hintz.

Rantanen has already proven he can be The Guy come playoff time. And after struggling to find the right center match last season, he has found chemistry with Johnston this season. They’re dynamic together at five-on-five and on the power play, with Rantanen’s playmaking elevating Johnston’s scoring chance creation.

Robertson’s next-level play this year, plus Hintz’s strong defense and playmaking, forms a one-two punch with the Rantanen line that challenges opposing defenders, allowing Dallas to spread the wealth across the top line. With Mavrik Bourque clicking with Robertson and the Stars now experimenting with Michael Bunting with Rantanen, it allows Matt Duchene to be a third-line scoring threat, and forecheckers like Justin Hryckowian to fill out the rest of the depth.

It isn’t clear if Hintz will be ready for Game 1 and LeBrun wrote that “there’s no assurance” he’s back in the first round at all. The current odds reflect Hintz missing half the series, and they drop further toward the Wild the longer he’s out. If Hintz suits up for Game 1, Dallas ends up a slight favorite.

Whether Hintz and Heiskanen are in will determine how much support the goaltending has.

After Jake Oettinger’s playoffs ended on a sour note last spring, he responded with 33 quality starts in 53 games, which add up to 8.8 goals above expected. With a new coach and a slightly reduced workload, he should be fresher than last year heading into this postseason.

While the Stars’ goalies have combined for an .898 save percentage, which ranks fourth in the league, Minnesota is second, with a combined .903 between Gustavsson and Wallstedt.

Behind that .903 is a lot more ups and downs, especially from Gustavsson — between a skid heading into the Olympics, and only earning two quality starts in eight appearances over the past month. Wallstedt has been steadier over the last stretch but may not get playoff reps unless Gustavsson strikes out early.

In front of the blue paint, the Hughes trade has had a trickle-down effect on the rest of the defense. Besides elevating Faber’s all-around game, it reunited Brodin and Jared Spurgeon on the second pair and knocked Jake Middleton out of the top four.

Brodin and Spurgeon still have that shutdown magic together, despite shouldering a tough workload. While neither one moves the needle offensively at this point in his career, they combine for a plus-9.1 Defensive Rating and make up one of the strongest pairs in the league. Brodin and Spurgeon’s shot suppression has limited opponents to 2.08 xGA per 60, and with an assist from the goaltenders, the pair has allowed even fewer goals against (1.33 per 60). That play will be especially important when (or if) Dallas’ top six is at full strength.

The real questions are up front.

With Mats Zuccarello boosting his scoring and two-way impact alongside Kirill Kaprizov this season, Minnesota doesn’t need a top-heavy approach like last spring.

Instead, Matt Boldy’s rising value drives the second line. He contributes a little bit of everything up front: solid transition play, high-danger passing, forechecking and one of the higher rates of cycle chances around the league. That pairs well with Joel Eriksson Ek’s shutdown strengths. Eriksson Ek takes on a heavy burden and frustrates opponents, but in a perfect world, he would have another center higher than him on the depth chart.

If center depth wins championships, Minnesota is in trouble, and the winger depth can’t make up for it in the bottom six.

Danila Yurov has shown promise, and so has deadline-add Bobby Brink. Marcus Foligno and Yakov Trenin are reliable forecheckers in the bottom six, while Michael McCarron adds another layer of defense at center. But a lack of offense adds up down the lineup: The Wild’s bottom seven forwards have a combined minus-32 Offensive Rating, which could prove costly against the Stars’ depth.

The key matchup

Jason Robertson vs. Kirill Kaprizov

Kaprizov is an MVP-caliber forward who has completely transformed the Wild. He’s the second most valuable player in this series with a plus-16.8 Net Rating and that isn’t even his top level. Last season, he played at a plus-26.2 pace and picked up his game further in the playoffs, scoring nine points in six games.

Robertson came into this season trying to prove that he is franchise-caliber. He has gone above and beyond, with difference-making play. Now it just has to translate when it matters most.

Two things are true with Robertson’s playoff pedigree: It’s not nearly as bad as narratives suggest, but he hasn’t elevated his game enough to steal a series, either.

If his regular season is any indication, Robertson is coming into the playoffs hot, and that should make for a star-powered series. But playoff elevation could be the difference in Kaprizov’s favor.

The bottom line

Kaprizov, Hughes and Boldy are game-breaking talents who’d be enough to push Minnesota past plenty of opponents, but Dallas has top-end players who provide a counterbalance along with superior depth. That gives the Stars the edge in a tight series that, no matter what, should be taking place sometime next month.

References

How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty 

Resources

Evolving-Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder



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