Key events
By which I mean I love watching Gauff and her defensive work is stupendous, but she doesn’t take my breath away with the scope of her talent in the way Sabalenka does. And, as she gets older, Sabalenka is getting better at finding the best of herself when she really needs to – see her match against Keys the other day – and, as I type, she breaks to 30. Gauff, the defending champion, is a set and a break down, with serious work to do if she’s to get out of this. The world no 1 leads 7-6 1-0.
Aryna Sabalenka takes the first set against Coco Gauff 7-6(5)
Gauff saves the first, but it’s back to the old one-two serve out wide, buggy-whip forehand to the opposite corner, and Sabalenka seizes a first set despite being second-best for the majority of it. She’s just so good – now – at converting anger and frustration into tennis; when Gauff served at 5-4, a break looked extremely unlikely, but then the magic intervened and here we are.
Sabalenka quickly gets the mini-break back, then hauls herself level at 4-4 with a monstrous serve; it’s so hard to split these two. But another service winner gives her 5-4, the ball screeching out wide and somehow bouncing on the line … then the pressure tells, Gauff serving a fault. Sabalenka moves in, the double is completed, and at 6-4 she has two set points.
The “Let’s go x!, let’s go”chant, surely the worst in sport, echoes around the aryna arena, then Sabalenka misses the chance to pass on the run to secure a mini-break, directing a backhand into the net; 2-1 Gauff. Then, finding herself at the net once more, following yet more excellent defence from the American, she overhits her backhand clean-up, perhaps spooked by the retrievals into going for the line. At change of ends, Gauff leads 4-2, and her forehand is hiolding up brilliantly.
A forehand winner gives Gauff 15-0; a forehand error hands over 15-all. But Gauff quickly makes 40-15 and when she desperately retrieves from the corner, her squash shot deceives Sabalenka, who nets her overhead, so here comes the tiebreak we and this set richly deserve.
Has momentum switched? Sabalenka holds to love for 6-5 and leads for the first time in the match. How will Gauff’s new serve stand up under the pressure that’s coming her way – from game-state and very game opponent?
A forehand drop is too good for Sabalenka and makes 15-0; comms point out that Gauff has won every second-serve point in the set. And it’s nearly hers, a netted backhand taking her two points away from it. But a ball on to the baseline incites the American to go wide, then Sabalenka finally gets after a second delivery, taking charge of the rally and eliciting the error; 30-all. And what a point comes next, the world no 1 hitting great lengths from the back before rushing in, in pursuit of a net cord, flicking back a fine response that’s too good … then a forehand winner, just inside the sideline, secures the break-back for 5-5, and this is by far the best match I’ve seen this week, in terms of standard, excitement and intrigue. MORE MORE MORE MORE.
Up 30-0, Sabalenka unleashes a trademark serve out wide, clean-up forehand into the opposite corner; she holds for love, forcing Gauff to close out set one at 5-4.
Gauff is loving this and she holds to 15, meaning Sabalenka will now serve to stay in the set at 3-5, while telly confirm that there’s no three-set permutation that eliminates Pegula.
There’s something about playing Sabalenka that gets Gauff going; she’s frighteningly absorbed in the match. After her French Open win, I doubt she was gratified to hear her vanquished opponent bemoan the worst final she’d ever played, nor to hear her assert that the outcome reflected her shortcomings, not her opponent’s strengths. But there’s more to it than that, I sense, and, as I type, Gauff forces two points for the double break; she’s on one here. The first is saved via backhand down the line, the second with a serve out wide, but on deuce, Gauff goes down the line with a high-kicker, knowing the response will probably come cross, feeding her backhand … ad it does, so she spanks a winner, line. She’s putting the points together really nicely her, feeding Sabalenka balls and anticipating the response … which is all very well, but there’s nothing you can do about a serve this violent, three aces in a row making light of a tricky situation. Gauff leads 4-3 in the first, and this is a seriously immersive battle of wits and fury.
I’m enjoying the expletive out of this; granted, it’s biologically impossible not to. Gauff makes 15-0 when her forehand, targeted by Sabalenka, holds up well … then again when it wrests control of the rally before whipping a top-spin winner down the line. An ace for 40-0 follows, then the world no 1 sends an inside-out backhand wide, and that’s the break endorsed, Gauff up 4-2 in the first.
There’s serious aggression here, both players hurling the entirety of their corporeality into their shots. Gauff leaps into a backhand that facilitates a vicious overhead winner, then another table tennis forehand gives her 0-30; Sabalenka responds with an unreturnable serve and forehand; 30-all. But Gauff gets to 30-40 and a forehand into the top of the net secures another break for 3-2, the contrasting demeanour of our players extremely evident: Gauff is focused, intense and calm; Sabalenka is distracted, intense and furious.
Sabalenka’s best point of the match so far makes her 0-15, forehands from the back too much to handle. And when Gauff isn’t decisive enough at the net, missing two chances to put away, she’s passed cross-court for 0-30; the a backhand into the net raises three break-back points. The first is confiscated with a forehand winner hit cross – it’s almost a table tennis smash – but when a further forehand drifts long, we’re back level at 2-2 in the first, the match starting to proceed as we thought it might.
Gauff is seriously focused for this one ands looks to have a plan: keeping Sabalenka on her bike, both side to side and out to in. She’s also looking to get after any second serve she’s sent, and those tactics get her to 30-all; from there, though, the hold is secured, and Gauff leads 2-1 in the first, with a break.
We said earlier that Gauff might draw Sabalenka to the net, and her slice, off both wings, is doing just that. She makes 40-15 and already, Sabalenka is on a rolling boil, thwacking a return wide to hand over the consolidation; she leads 2-0 and this is already extremely fascinating.
Sabalenka goes long on the backhand but soon makes 15-all then, at 30-15, she swipes a backhand wide, bringing a bit of pressure to her first service game. And another backhand, bludgeoned wide, offers Gauff an immediate break point; she retrieves two terrifying forehands, the second of which asks Sabalenka to play a volley … and she nets! Gauff leads 1-0, just as I said she would.
Righto, we’re good to go, Sabalenka to serve. Ready … play.
It’s also worth noting that in that French Open final, conditions were minging. Indoors, with no elements interfering, Sabalenka’s colossal game gives her the advantage because she can unleash her power with a pretty solid idea of what’ll happen next.
So how will our second match go? Well, we know Gauff’s issues: she’s remodelling her serve while competing, and has an unreliable forehand but, on the other hand knows she can beat Sabalenka on the big occasion, having diddled her in the final at Roland Garros.
So Sabalenka will target her in those areas having played brilliantly in overcoming Pegula the other day; real talk, it’s hard to look past her. But Gauff is amazing at finding a way and will, I think, look to keep her opponent moving, perhaps pulling her into the net, and hoping she’s a bit off her best. I’ll level with you, I can’t really see a way.
That was really impressive from Pegula and, of all those in the competition, she and Rybakina are playing nearest to their best. She’s a threat here, and if she could win the thing, that’d be a massive statement as regards next season.
If Sabakenka wins, she wins the group with 3-0; if Gauff wins in two, she wins the group and Pegula takes second; if Gauff wins in three, we’ll be counting up the games.
And next for us: Aryna Sabalenka v Coco Gauff. Don’t mind if we do!
Pegula is glad to get a win in straights “for the first time in months,” saying she served well and doesn’t have many negative notes for herself. She thinks she’s through, and now needs to focus on who’s next – she’ll be ready.
As ever, she’s asked to compliment the fans – slightly odd given’t there aren’t many of them and haven’t been all week – and dutifully does that, saying she hopes the game can grow in the Gulf area. Next for her, probably: Rybakina or Anisimova.
Jessica Pegula beats Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-3
She’s not quite in the last four but she’s close – details to follow – after giving Paolini a thorough beating, breaking her serve four times and dominating the match via forehand from start to finish,
Paolini saves it, but Pegula quickly forces another, putting away a volley at net…
Paolini enjoys a net-cord winner, apologising whole laughing; that’s about the size of the convention. At which point my internet drops out – gah! – returning in time for me to see Pegula has match point at 6-2 5-3 30-40.
Well, she makes 15-30, thanks in part to a double, but can’t do enough when a putaway at net is hit straight at her. And from there, Pegula closes out, sealing the hold with an ace; at 6-2 4-2, she’s two games away; as per the below, if she wins in straights, the only way she doesn’t make the last four is if Gauff beats Sabalenka in three and she’s won the fewest games of the three which, given the 6-2 set earlier, seems unlikely.
It would’ve been easy for Paolini to scratch from this match, ill, tired and out. But I’m sure she’s spent most of her career doubting she’d ever get to play this tournament and in any event, she’s not made like that; it’s no surprise that she cruises to a straightforward hold. At 2-6 2-3, can she find a way to get the break-back?
In comms, Tim was saying if Madison keys can win a slam, so too can Pegula, and while he probably knows more about tennis than me, that is not mathematics. What Keys has that Pegula doesn’t is weapons-grade weapons, her serve and groundstrokes giving her a higher ceiling and the ability to beat the best on the big occasion. I’m not saying Pegula can’t, though I’d be surprised, just that Keys doing so isn’t relevant – Wozniacki is a better comparator, and she got there, eventually – but the standard is higher now. Meantime a love hold means the American leads 6-2 3-1.
It might just be that Pegula is – strangely for a sportsperson – hitting her peak at 31. Se’s someone I’ve never thought could beat the top players in majors, but she’s doing a much better job of finding a way to compete when physically she’s overmatched, principally because of her forehand. And, as I type, she makes 0-40 … then Paolini fights back to deuce, before a forehand swatted wide hands over advantage … and a double donates the break. That’s got to be annoying, and it feels like the end isn’t far away; Pegula leads 6-2 2-1.
Pegula had a bad time playing this event last year, losing twice then hurting her knee, but she’s a different player now and holds easily for 6-2 1-1.
An inside-out backhand on to the line gives Pegula 15-all on the Paolini serve and a double follows, bringing with it pressure. She responds well enough, though, making 40-30, but then a brutal forehand, pasted inside-out on to the line, makes deuce. And from there, Pegula thwacks merrily from the back to make advantage … then overhits to restore deuce. Paolini, though, is – despite illness, tiredness and elimination – doing everything she can to make a match of this and closes out a hold a less intense competitor might’ve abandoned. Pegula leads 6-2 0-1.
Jessica Pegula wins the first set against Jasmine Paolini 6-2
Pegula looks really confident out there – she has all week, perhaps more so than I’ve ever seen her against the best players. She quickly makes 40-0 but then, offering a tame second serve, she allows Paolini to run around her forehand and smite a winner down the line. No matter: a forehand error follows, and that’s seals a dominant first set for the in-form American.
Sara Errani, Paolini’s doubles partner, is courtside, and I love watching those two compete – they have a right laugh, as well they might having won Olympic gold and this year’s French Open together. Paolini holds to 30, meaning at 5-2, Pegula will shortly serve for the first set.
It’s so interesting when older players suddenly get good – it’s happened over the last couple of years with Zhang Anda in snooker – and Paolini is another. One minute she’s a doubles specialist then, last year, she makes two grand slam finals, and has been knocking about at the top of the game ever since. What changed? I don’t think anyone knows. But back to the now, she makes 0-30, and though Pegula’s forehand – the definitive shot of the match, so far – makes her another winner, Paolini then makes 30-40. She can’t though, convert the break point, then overhits a backhand before netting a forehand, and that’s five games in a row for Pegula, who leads 5-1 in the first.
Again, Pegula wins the first point on Paolini’s serve, then makes 0-30; a buggy-whip forehand winner quickly halves the arrears and we wind up at 30-all. From there, though, Pegula’s forehand takes over, a winner followed by one which incites her opponent to go long. The American leads 4-1 with a double break, and this match is only going one way.
Paolini makes 0-15 but then overhits a forehand, and I wonder if Pegula’s greater consistency off the ground will be decisive here. A service winner gives her 40-15, she closes out, and at 3-1 endorses her break.
Does anyone toss the ball higher than Paolini? It’s funny as she’s got more time than most before it comes down, and less arm to get above it, but anyroad, she finds herself down 30-40 and, as we thought she might, hits down the middle; Pegula goes for the winner and hits wide. But on advantage, she clips the top of the net, and taking advantage of the additional time this allows as the ball sits up, Pegula punishes a winner down the line, then rushes through deuce by attacking Paolini’s forehand, securing the break and a 2-1 lead.
Pegula responds with an emphatic love hold, her forehand down the line in excellent order. She really fancies this, you can tell, and of the three contesting the two semi-final places, she’s the one you’d bet on to make it.
Paolini nets to go down 0-15 but soon makes 30-15, and a backhand swiped wide gives her game point. And though a decent return incites her to go wide, a decent first serve serve secures the hold. “It’s always good to get the first game under your belt,” revelates Tim Henman.
Ready … play.
Pegula wins the toss and opts to receive. She beat Coco Gauff earlier in the week and against Sabalenka, was up a break in the third; Paolini has twice been splattered in straights.
Paolini, of course, has been ill this week, but she looks happy enough on court.
My guess is that Paolini will try to keep Pegula moving, as she has the athletic advantage, while trying to hit winners; I wonder if Pegula will hit down the middle to deny angle, looking to prolong the rallies and incite the error.
Out come our players; Paolini’s mascot is about her height.
So how is our first match going to go? Well, Pegula is in terrific nick, giving Sabalenka all she could handle on Tuesday, while Paolini has looked knackered in being eliminated from both singles and doubles. So chances are Pegula, who is playing to qualify, does enough, but her lack of a definitive weapon means she’ll always be beatable when facing top players, and Paolini is definitely one of those.
Babos/Stefani win so, as far as I can fathom, they qualify for the last four along with Siniakova/Townsend.
We’ve a match tiebreaker going on in today’s first doubles match; the pairs are Dabrowski/Routliffe and Babos/Stefani.
Preamble
Greetings all and welcome to your afternoon fun and joy, also known as the final round of group matches in the 2025 WTA Tour Finals.
We begin with Jessica Pegula v Jasmine Paolini, plenty to be going on with, except following them on to court we’re blessed with Aryna Sabalenka v Coco Gauff – a treat in any circumstances, never mind these.
Paolini is out, having lost both her matches in a state of enthusiastic exhaustion, but the other three are fighting for two semi-final slots, Sabalenka sitting 2-0 and the others two 1-1. Depending on what happens today, these are the permutations, from least complex to most:
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If Paolini and Gauff win, Gauff wins the group and Sabalenka takes second.
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If Pegula and Sabalenka win, Sabalenka wins the group and Pegula takes second.
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If Paolini and Sabalenka both win in two, Sabalenka wins the group and Gauff takes second; If Paolini and Sabalenka both win in three, Sabalenka wins the group and Pegula takes second; if Paolini wins in three and Sabalanka wins in two, Sabalenka wins the group and Gauff takes second; and if Paolini wins in two and Sabalanka wins in three, Sabalenka wins the group and Gauff takes second.
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If Gauff and Pegula both win in two, Gauff wins the group and Pegula takes second; if Gauff and Pegula both win in three, Gauff wins the group and Sabalenka takes second; if Gauff wins in two and Pegula wins in three, Gauff wins the group and Sabalenka takes second; and if Gauff wins in three and Pegula wins in two, which players move on will be decided by the number of games won across the group.
Got it? No? Me neither, but all will soon be revealed and, in the meantime, it’s our pleasure to ignore outcome and focus on process: this is going to be good.
Play: 5pm local, 2pm GMT
