Semana 3 de la NFL Líneas Lookhead: las mejores apuestas para adelantarse al movimiento de línea basado en los resultados de la Semana 2

La semana pasada, hablamos sobre el valor de proyectar los cambios potenciales en las calificaciones del mercado en función de lo que esperamos que suceda el domingo para obtener excelentes selecciones contra las líneas LookAhead. Nuestro ejemplo del artículo fue Broncos -Bolts y lo que sucedería si Indy rodara contra Miami, lo que probablemente traería esa línea de Broncos -3.5 por debajo del número clave de 3 si los Broncos no destruyan a los Titanes. Eso no solo sucedió al reabrir las líneas de la Semana 2, sino que el número actualmente se encuentra en los Broncos -1.5, dejando a los que llevaron a los Colts a +3.5 con un boleto valioso que se dirige al fin de semana casi seguro de devolver el valor de la línea de cierre.

No teníamos el juego de Broncos Coolts en nuestras cuatro mejores apuestas de Lookahead que valió la pena considerar antes del domingo pasado, pero logramos otros tres movimientos clave, tomando los Jets a +8.5 (actualmente +6.5), los Jaguars a +5.5 (actualmente +3.5) y los Cardenales a -4.5 (actualmente en -6.5). Nuestra última elección fue Raiders +3, y eso terminó no devolviendo el valor temprano después de que los Chargers impresionaron a los Chiefs, aunque los Raiders molestaron a los Patriots, ya que pensamos que tenían una mejor oportunidad de lo que sugirió el mercado.

Volvemos a jugar el mismo juego con las líneas de la semana 3, apuntando a ciertos juegos que creemos que tienen el potencial de devolver un gran valor de línea para cuando la mayor parte de la acción de la Semana 2 ha terminado el domingo. A pesar de que nuestras mejores consideraciones deberían ser alrededor de números clave, las selecciones como los Jaguars y los Cardenales la semana pasada pueden terminar siendo un gran valor sin pasar por uno de los principales números clave.

Echemos un vistazo a las líneas de lookhead de la semana 3 de consenso y luego compartimos nuestras mejores apuestas para bloquear temprano.

Semana 3 Líneas de Lookahead

Delfines en Bills (-10), 48.5
Falcons (-2.5) en Panthers, 44.5
Bengals en Vikings (-1.5), 47
Packers (-7) en Browns, 43
Texans en Jaguars (-1), 43.5
Rams en Eagles (-4.5), 45.5
Colts (-2) en Titans, 43
Jets en Buccaneers (-5), 44.5
Steelers (-1.5) en Patriots, 43
Raiders At Commanders (-6), 47.5
Broncos en Chargers (-1.5), 43.5
Santos en Seahawks (-6.5), 41.5
Cowboys at Bears (-2.5), 46.5
Cardenales en 49ers (-2.5), 44.5
Chiefs (-6) en Giants, 42.5
Leones en Ravens (-6), 50.5

SEMANA 3 PELIDOS DE MIROHEAD

Steelers en Patriots

The Steelers’ offense looked much better than expected in Week 2, but the defense is dealing with a number of injuries that could cause the team to look worse against the Seahawks than expected. On the other side, the Patriots are coming off an upset loss and are currently underdogs in Miami, the team that probably looked the worst in Week 1. If the Patriots look more like the team the market expected to see before the season as average or slightly better, there’s no way they’ll deserve to be home underdogs in this matchup, and you could even see this swing all the way near to even to Patriots -3 if the books have these teams around even in ratings coming out of Sunday.

Rams at Eagles

The Rams are big favorites in Tennessee, and it’s hard to see them getting a ratings boost even with a convincing win as the market will just treat the Titans as inept offensively. But if the Eagles are anywhere near as effective against the Chiefs as they were in February, this line could get up near -6, which is where we see Lions-Ravens, as the teams in this matchup should have similar market ratings. I believe there’s a good chance of a convincing Philly win this week after the Chiefs lost their second starting receiver while their defense did nothing to slow down the Chargers’ offense.

Bengals at Vikings

The Vikings don’t play until Sunday night, so the reopen will largely depend on the Bengals, who face a Jaguars team that impressed in Week 1. If the Bengals don’t win convincingly, I expect this to reopen at Vikings -3. And even if the Bengals do win but the defense struggles against a competent offense, the books should see a matchup where the Vikings’ defense has a better shot at slowing down the Bengals attack than vice versa and throw in Minnesota’s strong home-field advantage to at least get the line to -2 or -2.5.

Cowboys at Bears

This is a tougher one to play with the ‘dog just under the key number of 3, but let’s look at what’s expected to happen this Sunday. First, the Bears are around six-point underdogs against a Lions team not many expect to start 0-2, and if their offense struggles in that game like it did this past Monday, the market won’t have a lot of confidence in them. The Cowboys are around 4.5-point favorites at home against the Giants after opening around -6, and if the Giants’ offense struggles again, people will look at this matchup and wonder if the Cowboys should be giving any points at all in Chicago.

Other notes: You might be able to get ahead of a significant line move in the Cardinals-49ers game depending on whether you can accurately determine how Mac Jones looks running the 49ers’ offense against the Saints on Sunday. If the results aren’t great, we could see this matchup reopen around pick ‘em, but if Jones plays well, it’s possible this flips to the other side of 3. … I’d say the Jaguars have a chance to reopen as bigger favorites against the Texans than -1 if they look good against the Bengals, but Houston’s spread this week against the Bucs didn’t react the way I expected considering how poorly the Texans played in Week 1, so who knows how the market is valuing that team right now. … The Bills are -10 hosting the Dolphins next Thursday, and if Miami struggles again, the market may be wondering if the Dolphins should be valued similarly to the Browns, who are 11.5-point underdogs in Baltimore this week.